La LigaMatchday 11Sunday 1 November 2026 · 15:15

Santander vs Real Madrid prediction

Santander

11%

home win

likeliest score

1–3

8.2% chance

14%

draw

Real Madrid

75%

away win

Win probability: home 11%, draw 14%, away 75%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Real Madrid clear favourites to beat Santander away from home in the La Liga on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:15 UTC. It gives Santander a 11% chance of winning, puts the draw at 14% and gives Real Madrid 75%.

GossipBall expects 1.1 goals from Santander and 3.0 from Real Madrid, so goals look likely: there is a 78% chance of three or more goals and a 65% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–3 (8%). Santander keep a clean sheet in 5% of outcomes, Real Madrid in 32%.

Santander are 13th in the table with 11 points from 10 games; Real Madrid are 3rd with 24. In their last five league games Santander took 4 points (LLDLW) and Real Madrid took 12 (WLWWW). This season Santander average 1.38 expected goals (xG) for and 2.13 against per game; Real Madrid average 2.39 for and 1.01 against.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Santander goalsColumns: Real Madrid goals

1–38.2%

1–28.2%

0–37.2%

0–27.2%

1–46.1%

0–45.4%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

98%

2 or more goals

92%

3 or more goals

78%

4 or more goals

59%

5 or more goals

40%

Both teams score

65%

GOSSIPBALL expects 4.1 goals in total: 1.14 for Santander and 3.00 for Real Madrid.

Winning margin

Explained

Santander by 3

Santander by 2

Santander by 1

Draw

14%

Real Madrid by 3

16%

Real Madrid by 2

20%

Real Madrid by 1

19%

Each team's goals

Explained

Santander expected goals1.14

Real Madrid expected goals3.00

Santander keep a clean sheet5%

Real Madrid keep a clean sheet32%

Santander win without conceding3%

Real Madrid win without conceding30%

Santander score 2 or more32%

Real Madrid score 2 or more80%

Recent form

Santander

W v Espanyol2–1 · 24 Oct

L @ Osasuna0–2 · 18 Oct

D v Valencia2–2 · 11 Oct

L @ Celta Vigo0–5 · 19 Sep

L @ Barcelona2–7 · 16 Sep

Real Madrid

W @ Barcelona2–1 · 25 Oct

W v Sevilla4–1 · 18 Oct

W v Villarreal1–0 · 10 Oct

L @ Atlético Madrid1–2 · 20 Sep

W @ Elche3–2 · 15 Sep

Head to head

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

SARM

1.50

Goals

2.50

2.60

Conceded

1.00

1.38

2.39

2.13

xG against

1.01

12.4

Shots

16.8

4.9

On target

7.0

5.1

Corners

6.4

2.70

Yellow cards

2.30

Clean sheets

20%

70%

Both score

70%

80%

3+ goals

80%

Questions and answers

Who will win Santander vs Real Madrid?

GossipBall gives Santander a 11% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Real Madrid 75%. GossipBall makes Real Madrid clear favourites to beat Santander away from home.

What is the most likely score in Santander vs Real Madrid?

The likeliest single score is 1–3, with a 8% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (8%), 0–3 (7%), 0–2 (7%).

Will both teams score in Santander vs Real Madrid?

GossipBall gives a 65% chance that both Santander and Real Madrid score.

Will there be three or more goals in Santander vs Real Madrid?

There is a 78% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 4.1 goals in total (1.1 for Santander, 3.0 for Real Madrid).

When is Santander vs Real Madrid?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:15 UTC.