La LigaMatchday 12Friday 6 November 2026 · 20:00

Sevilla vs Alaves prediction

Sevilla

44%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.5% chance

26%

draw

Alaves

29%

away win

Win probability: home 44%, draw 26%, away 29%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Sevilla slight favourites to beat Alaves at home in the La Liga on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Sevilla a 44% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Alaves 29%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Sevilla and 1.1 from Alaves, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 45% chance of three or more goals and a 49% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 34% of outcomes, Alaves in 25%.

Sevilla are 6th in the table with 17 points from 10 games; Alaves are 7th with 12. In their last five league games Sevilla took 7 points (WLDLW) and Alaves took 2 (LDLLD). This season Sevilla average 1.06 expected goals (xG) for and 1.38 against per game; Alaves average 1.32 for and 1.17 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Sevilla won 1, Alaves won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Sevilla goalsColumns: Alaves goals

1–112.5%

1–012.0%

0–19.3%

2–18.8%

0–08.4%

2–08.2%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

70%

3 or more goals

45%

4 or more goals

23%

5 or more goals

10%

Both teams score

49%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.39 for Sevilla and 1.07 for Alaves.

Winning margin

Explained

Sevilla by 3

Sevilla by 2

13%

Sevilla by 1

23%

Draw

26%

Alaves by 3

Alaves by 2

Alaves by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Sevilla expected goals1.39

Alaves expected goals1.07

Sevilla keep a clean sheet34%

Alaves keep a clean sheet25%

Sevilla win without conceding26%

Alaves win without conceding16%

Sevilla score 2 or more41%

Alaves score 2 or more29%

Recent form

Sevilla

W v Osasuna2–0 · 26 Oct

L @ Real Madrid1–4 · 18 Oct

D @ Levante3–3 · 12 Oct

L v Barcelona1–3 · 19 Sep

W @ Deportivo La Coruña1–0 · 16 Sep

Alaves

D v Malaga1–1 · 23 Oct

L @ Celta Vigo1–2 · 18 Oct

L v Atlético Madrid1–2 · 10 Oct

D @ Athletic Club0–0 · 19 Sep

L v Valencia0–1 · 15 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Sevilla won 1, Alaves won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

Sevilla 1–1 Alaves14 Feb 2026

Alaves 1–2 Sevilla20 Sep 2025

Sevilla 1–1 Alaves20 Apr 2025

Alaves 2–1 Sevilla20 Sep 2024

Sevilla 2–3 Alaves12 Jan 2024

Alaves 4–3 Sevilla21 Aug 2023

Season averages per game

SEAL

1.60

Goals

1.40

1.60

Conceded

1.10

1.06

1.32

1.38

xG against

1.17

12.3

Shots

13.3

4.6

On target

4.7

3.4

Corners

4.1

2.70

Yellow cards

1.70

30%

Clean sheets

30%

70%

Both score

60%

3+ goals

50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Sevilla vs Alaves?

GossipBall gives Sevilla a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Alaves 29%. GossipBall makes Sevilla slight favourites to beat Alaves at home.

What is the most likely score in Sevilla vs Alaves?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Alaves?

GossipBall gives a 49% chance that both Sevilla and Alaves score.

Will there be three or more goals in Sevilla vs Alaves?

There is a 45% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.4 for Sevilla, 1.1 for Alaves).

When is Sevilla vs Alaves?

Kick-off is Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Alaves?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Sevilla won 1, Alaves won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 14 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.