La LigaMatchday 12Saturday 7 November 2026 · 20:00

Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction

Valencia

18%

home win

likeliest score

0–1

11.9% chance

22%

draw

Real Madrid

59%

away win

Win probability: home 18%, draw 22%, away 59%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Real Madrid favourites to beat Valencia away from home in the La Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Valencia a 18% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Real Madrid 59%.

GossipBall expects 0.9 goals from Valencia and 1.8 from Real Madrid, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 52% chance of three or more goals and a 50% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 0–1 (12%). Valencia keep a clean sheet in 16% of outcomes, Real Madrid in 40%.

Valencia are 19th in the table with 6 points from 10 games; Real Madrid are 3rd with 24. In their last five league games Valencia took 5 points (WLDDL) and Real Madrid took 12 (WLWWW). This season Valencia average 1.03 expected goals (xG) for and 1.49 against per game; Real Madrid average 2.39 for and 1.01 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Valencia won 2, Real Madrid won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid, a win for Real Madrid.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Valencia goalsColumns: Real Madrid goals

0–111.9%

0–210.8%

1–110.6%

1–29.8%

0–36.7%

0–06.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

76%

3 or more goals

52%

4 or more goals

30%

5 or more goals

14%

Both teams score

50%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.7 goals in total: 0.91 for Valencia and 1.84 for Real Madrid.

Winning margin

Explained

Valencia by 3

Valencia by 2

Valencia by 1

12%

Draw

22%

Real Madrid by 3

10%

Real Madrid by 2

18%

Real Madrid by 1

25%

Each team's goals

Explained

Valencia expected goals0.91

Real Madrid expected goals1.84

Valencia keep a clean sheet16%

Real Madrid keep a clean sheet40%

Valencia win without conceding10%

Real Madrid win without conceding34%

Valencia score 2 or more23%

Real Madrid score 2 or more55%

Recent form

Valencia

L v Villarreal1–2 · 24 Oct

D v Athletic Club0–0 · 17 Oct

D @ Santander2–2 · 11 Oct

L v Real Sociedad2–3 · 20 Sep

W @ Alaves1–0 · 15 Sep

Real Madrid

W @ Barcelona2–1 · 25 Oct

W v Sevilla4–1 · 18 Oct

W v Villarreal1–0 · 10 Oct

L @ Atlético Madrid1–2 · 20 Sep

W @ Elche3–2 · 15 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Valencia won 2, Real Madrid won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid, a win for Real Madrid.

Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid8 Feb 2026

Real Madrid 4–0 Valencia1 Nov 2025

Real Madrid 1–2 Valencia5 Apr 2025

Valencia 1–2 Real Madrid3 Jan 2025

Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid2 Mar 2024

Real Madrid 5–1 Valencia11 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

VARM

0.70

Goals

2.50

1.70

Conceded

1.00

1.03

2.39

1.49

xG against

1.01

10.9

Shots

16.8

2.9

On target

7.0

4.2

Corners

6.4

2.50

Yellow cards

2.30

30%

Clean sheets

20%

40%

Both score

70%

50%

3+ goals

80%

Questions and answers

Who will win Valencia vs Real Madrid?

GossipBall gives Valencia a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Real Madrid 59%. GossipBall makes Real Madrid favourites to beat Valencia away from home.

What is the most likely score in Valencia vs Real Madrid?

The likeliest single score is 0–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 0–2 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%).

Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Madrid?

GossipBall gives a 50% chance that both Valencia and Real Madrid score.

Will there be three or more goals in Valencia vs Real Madrid?

There is a 52% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (0.9 for Valencia, 1.8 for Real Madrid).

When is Valencia vs Real Madrid?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Madrid?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Valencia won 2, Real Madrid won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, finished Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid, a win for Real Madrid.