Ligue 1Matchday 10Saturday 7 November 2026 · 16:15

Auxerre vs Paris FC prediction

Auxerre

32%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.1% chance

27%

draw

Paris FC

40%

away win

Win probability: home 32%, draw 27%, away 40%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Paris FC slight favourites to beat Auxerre away from home in the Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC. It gives Auxerre a 32% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Paris FC 40%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Auxerre and 1.4 from Paris FC, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 48% chance of three or more goals and a 53% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 25% of outcomes, Paris FC in 30%.

Auxerre are 12th in the table with 10 points from 8 games; Paris FC are 6th with 14. In their last five league games Auxerre took 10 points (WWLWD) and Paris FC took 7 (DWLWL). This season Auxerre average 1.54 expected goals (xG) for and 1.97 against per game; Paris FC average 1.79 for and 1.02 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Auxerre won 0, Paris FC won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Auxerre goalsColumns: Paris FC goals

1–113.1%

0–19.8%

1–28.6%

1–08.5%

0–08.0%

2–17.6%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

74%

3 or more goals

48%

4 or more goals

26%

5 or more goals

12%

Both teams score

53%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.21 for Auxerre and 1.38 for Paris FC.

Winning margin

Explained

Auxerre by 3

Auxerre by 2

Auxerre by 1

19%

Draw

27%

Paris FC by 3

Paris FC by 2

12%

Paris FC by 1

21%

Each team's goals

Explained

Auxerre expected goals1.21

Paris FC expected goals1.38

Auxerre keep a clean sheet25%

Paris FC keep a clean sheet30%

Auxerre win without conceding17%

Paris FC win without conceding22%

Auxerre score 2 or more34%

Paris FC score 2 or more40%

Recent form

Auxerre

D v Le Mans1–1 · 25 Oct

W @ Le Havre3–1 · 18 Oct

L @ Rennes1–4 · 11 Oct

W v Brest2–1 · 20 Sep

W v Nice1–0 · 12 Sep

Paris FC

L @ Lens1–2 · 24 Oct

W v Rennes4–3 · 18 Oct

L @ Lorient0–1 · 10 Oct

W v Strasbourg2–1 · 19 Sep

D v Lyon0–0 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Auxerre won 0, Paris FC won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

Auxerre 0–0 Paris FC8 Feb 2026

Paris FC 1–1 Auxerre29 Nov 2025

Season averages per game

AUPA

1.50

Goals

1.62

2.25

Conceded

1.12

1.54

1.79

1.97

xG against

1.02

12.2

Shots

13.2

5.1

On target

4.5

5.8

Corners

3.5

1.38

Yellow cards

2.38

12%

Clean sheets

38%

88%

Both score

50%

75%

3+ goals

62%

Questions and answers

Who will win Auxerre vs Paris FC?

GossipBall gives Auxerre a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Paris FC 40%. GossipBall makes Paris FC slight favourites to beat Auxerre away from home.

What is the most likely score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?

GossipBall gives a 53% chance that both Auxerre and Paris FC score.

Will there be three or more goals in Auxerre vs Paris FC?

There is a 48% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.2 for Auxerre, 1.4 for Paris FC).

When is Auxerre vs Paris FC?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Auxerre won 0, Paris FC won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, was a 0–0 draw.