Ligue 1Matchday 10Sunday 8 November 2026 · 19:45

Lens vs Marseille prediction

Lens

50%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

10.4% chance

23%

draw

Marseille

27%

away win

Win probability: home 50%, draw 23%, away 27%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Lens favourites to beat Marseille at home in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Lens a 50% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Marseille 27%.

GossipBall expects 1.9 goals from Lens and 1.3 from Marseille, so goals look likely: there is a 63% chance of three or more goals and a 63% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (10%). Lens keep a clean sheet in 26% of outcomes, Marseille in 15%.

Lens are 7th in the table with 13 points from 8 games; Marseille are 8th with 12. In their last five league games Lens took 10 points (DLWWW) and Marseille took 9 (LLWWW). This season Lens average 1.88 expected goals (xG) for and 1.47 against per game; Marseille average 1.67 for and 2.29 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Lens won 6, Marseille won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Marseille 3–1 Lens, a win for Marseille.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Lens goalsColumns: Marseille goals

1–110.4%

2–19.5%

2–07.0%

1–06.9%

1–26.7%

2–26.4%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

96%

2 or more goals

84%

3 or more goals

63%

4 or more goals

41%

5 or more goals

23%

Both teams score

63%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.2 goals in total: 1.90 for Lens and 1.35 for Marseille.

Winning margin

Explained

Lens by 3

Lens by 2

15%

Lens by 1

21%

Draw

23%

Marseille by 3

Marseille by 2

Marseille by 1

15%

Each team's goals

Explained

Lens expected goals1.90

Marseille expected goals1.35

Lens keep a clean sheet26%

Marseille keep a clean sheet15%

Lens win without conceding22%

Marseille win without conceding11%

Lens score 2 or more57%

Marseille score 2 or more39%

Recent form

Lens

W v Paris FC2–1 · 24 Oct

W @ Troyes3–1 · 17 Oct

W v Lyon2–1 · 9 Oct

L @ Monaco1–2 · 18 Sep

D @ Le Mans2–2 · 13 Sep

Marseille

W v Le Havre4–3 · 25 Oct

W @ Angers5–2 · 18 Oct

W @ Troyes2–0 · 11 Oct

L v Paris Saint-Germain1–2 · 20 Sep

L @ Rennes0–1 · 11 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Lens won 6, Marseille won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Marseille 3–1 Lens, a win for Marseille.

Marseille 3–1 Lens24 Jan 2026

Lens 2–1 Marseille25 Oct 2025

Marseille 0–1 Lens8 Mar 2025

Lens 1–3 Marseille23 Nov 2024

Marseille 2–1 Lens28 Apr 2024

Lens 1–0 Marseille12 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

LEMA

2.00

Goals

2.25

1.50

Conceded

1.62

1.88

1.67

1.47

xG against

2.29

13.9

Shots

12.9

5.6

On target

4.9

6.5

Corners

4.4

2.12

Yellow cards

1.25

Clean sheets

25%

88%

Both score

50%

88%

3+ goals

62%

Questions and answers

Who will win Lens vs Marseille?

GossipBall gives Lens a 50% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marseille 27%. GossipBall makes Lens favourites to beat Marseille at home.

What is the most likely score in Lens vs Marseille?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 10% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%), 1–0 (7%).

Will both teams score in Lens vs Marseille?

GossipBall gives a 63% chance that both Lens and Marseille score.

Will there be three or more goals in Lens vs Marseille?

There is a 63% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (1.9 for Lens, 1.3 for Marseille).

When is Lens vs Marseille?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Marseille?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Lens won 6, Marseille won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Marseille 3–1 Lens, a win for Marseille.