Ligue 1Matchday 9Friday 30 October 2026 · 20:05

Lille vs Lens prediction

Lille

39%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.5% chance

28%

draw

Lens

33%

away win

Win probability: home 39%, draw 28%, away 33%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Lille slight favourites to beat Lens at home in the Ligue 1 on Friday 30 October 2026 at 20:05 UTC. It gives Lille a 39% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Lens 33%.

GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Lille and 1.2 from Lens, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 44% chance of three or more goals and a 50% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (14%). Lille keep a clean sheet in 31% of outcomes, Lens in 28%.

Lille are 3rd in the table with 15 points from 8 games; Lens are 7th with 13. In their last five league games Lille took 8 points (WLWDD) and Lens took 10 (DLWWW). This season Lille average 1.38 expected goals (xG) for and 1.66 against per game; Lens average 1.88 for and 1.47 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Lille won 5, Lens won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Lille 3–0 Lens, a win for Lille.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Lille goalsColumns: Lens goals

1–113.5%

1–010.5%

0–19.4%

0–09.2%

2–18.3%

1–27.5%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

91%

2 or more goals

71%

3 or more goals

44%

4 or more goals

23%

5 or more goals

10%

Both teams score

50%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.29 for Lille and 1.16 for Lens.

Winning margin

Explained

Lille by 3

Lille by 2

12%

Lille by 1

21%

Draw

28%

Lens by 3

Lens by 2

Lens by 1

19%

Each team's goals

Explained

Lille expected goals1.29

Lens expected goals1.16

Lille keep a clean sheet31%

Lens keep a clean sheet28%

Lille win without conceding22%

Lens win without conceding18%

Lille score 2 or more37%

Lens score 2 or more32%

Recent form

Lille

D @ Monaco1–1 · 25 Oct

D v Brest1–1 · 17 Oct

W v Le Havre1–0 · 10 Oct

L @ Nice1–2 · 20 Sep

W v Troyes2–0 · 13 Sep

Lens

W v Paris FC2–1 · 24 Oct

W @ Troyes3–1 · 17 Oct

W v Lyon2–1 · 9 Oct

L @ Monaco1–2 · 18 Sep

D @ Le Mans2–2 · 13 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Lille won 5, Lens won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Lille 3–0 Lens, a win for Lille.

Lille 3–0 Lens4 Apr 2026

Lens 3–0 Lille20 Sep 2025

Lille 1–0 Lens30 Mar 2025

Lens 0–2 Lille26 Oct 2024

Lille 2–1 Lens29 Mar 2024

Lens 1–1 Lille8 Oct 2023

Season averages per game

LILE

1.38

Goals

2.00

0.75

Conceded

1.50

1.38

1.88

1.66

xG against

1.47

11.2

Shots

13.9

5.0

On target

5.6

3.0

Corners

6.5

1.62

Yellow cards

2.12

50%

Clean sheets

50%

Both score

88%

25%

3+ goals

88%

Questions and answers

Who will win Lille vs Lens?

GossipBall gives Lille a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Lens 33%. GossipBall makes Lille slight favourites to beat Lens at home.

What is the most likely score in Lille vs Lens?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 14% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).

Will both teams score in Lille vs Lens?

GossipBall gives a 50% chance that both Lille and Lens score.

Will there be three or more goals in Lille vs Lens?

There is a 44% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.3 for Lille, 1.2 for Lens).

When is Lille vs Lens?

Kick-off is Friday 30 October 2026 at 20:05 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Lens?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Lille won 5, Lens won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Lille 3–0 Lens, a win for Lille.