Ligue 1Matchday 9Monday 2 November 2026 · 19:45

Lorient vs Brest prediction

Lorient

42%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.4% chance

26%

draw

Brest

32%

away win

Win probability: home 42%, draw 26%, away 32%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Lorient slight favourites to beat Brest at home in the Ligue 1 on Monday 2 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Lorient a 42% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Brest 32%.

GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Lorient and 1.3 from Brest, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 53% chance of three or more goals and a 57% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Lorient keep a clean sheet in 27% of outcomes, Brest in 22%.

Lorient are 9th in the table with 12 points from 8 games; Brest are 13th with 9. In their last five league games Lorient took 8 points (DLWWD) and Brest took 4 (LLWDL). This season Lorient average 1.09 expected goals (xG) for and 1.03 against per game; Brest average 2.06 for and 1.24 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Lorient won 3, Brest won 4 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 7 Feb 2026, finished Brest 2–0 Lorient, a win for Brest.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Lorient goalsColumns: Brest goals

1–112.4%

2–18.9%

1–08.6%

1–27.7%

0–17.3%

2–06.9%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

77%

3 or more goals

53%

4 or more goals

31%

5 or more goals

15%

Both teams score

57%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.8 goals in total: 1.50 for Lorient and 1.30 for Brest.

Winning margin

Explained

Lorient by 3

Lorient by 2

13%

Lorient by 1

21%

Draw

26%

Brest by 3

Brest by 2

Brest by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Lorient expected goals1.50

Brest expected goals1.30

Lorient keep a clean sheet27%

Brest keep a clean sheet22%

Lorient win without conceding21%

Brest win without conceding16%

Lorient score 2 or more44%

Brest score 2 or more37%

Recent form

Lorient

D @ Angers0–0 · 25 Oct

W v Monaco1–0 · 18 Oct

W v Paris FC1–0 · 10 Oct

L @ Le Mans1–2 · 19 Sep

D v Toulouse2–2 · 12 Sep

Brest

L v Nice1–2 · 23 Oct

D @ Lille1–1 · 17 Oct

W v Angers5–1 · 10 Oct

L @ Auxerre1–2 · 20 Sep

L v Paris Saint-Germain0–1 · 13 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Lorient won 3, Brest won 4 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 7 Feb 2026, finished Brest 2–0 Lorient, a win for Brest.

Brest 2–0 Lorient7 Feb 2026

Lorient 3–3 Brest19 Oct 2025

Lorient 0–1 Brest31 Mar 2024

Brest 4–0 Lorient20 Dec 2023

Lorient 2–1 Brest7 May 2023

Brest 1–2 Lorient9 Oct 2022

Season averages per game

LOBR

0.88

Goals

1.75

0.75

Conceded

1.50

1.09

2.06

1.03

xG against

1.24

9.8

Shots

16.9

3.1

On target

5.9

3.1

Corners

4.6

1.12

Yellow cards

1.50

62%

Clean sheets

38%

Both score

88%

38%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Lorient vs Brest?

GossipBall gives Lorient a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Brest 32%. GossipBall makes Lorient slight favourites to beat Brest at home.

What is the most likely score in Lorient vs Brest?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%).

Will both teams score in Lorient vs Brest?

GossipBall gives a 57% chance that both Lorient and Brest score.

Will there be three or more goals in Lorient vs Brest?

There is a 53% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.8 goals in total (1.5 for Lorient, 1.3 for Brest).

When is Lorient vs Brest?

Kick-off is Monday 2 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Brest?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Lorient won 3, Brest won 4 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 7 Feb 2026, finished Brest 2–0 Lorient, a win for Brest.