Ligue 1Matchday 9Sunday 1 November 2026 · 16:15

Paris FC vs Monaco prediction

Paris FC

41%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.6% chance

25%

draw

Monaco

34%

away win

Win probability: home 41%, draw 25%, away 34%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Paris FC slight favourites to beat Monaco at home in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC. It gives Paris FC a 41% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Monaco 34%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Paris FC and 1.4 from Monaco, so goals look likely: there is a 58% chance of three or more goals and a 61% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 24% of outcomes, Monaco in 21%.

Paris FC are 6th in the table with 14 points from 8 games; Monaco are 4th with 15. In their last five league games Paris FC took 7 points (DWLWL) and Monaco took 6 (DWDLD). This season Paris FC average 1.79 expected goals (xG) for and 1.02 against per game; Monaco average 1.25 for and 1.26 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Paris FC won 2, Monaco won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Apr 2026, finished Paris FC 4–1 Monaco, a win for Paris FC.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Paris FC goalsColumns: Monaco goals

1–111.6%

2–18.8%

1–28.0%

1–07.2%

0–16.5%

2–26.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

81%

3 or more goals

58%

4 or more goals

36%

5 or more goals

19%

Both teams score

61%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.58 for Paris FC and 1.44 for Monaco.

Winning margin

Explained

Paris FC by 3

Paris FC by 2

12%

Paris FC by 1

20%

Draw

25%

Monaco by 3

Monaco by 2

10%

Monaco by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Paris FC expected goals1.58

Monaco expected goals1.44

Paris FC keep a clean sheet24%

Monaco keep a clean sheet21%

Paris FC win without conceding18%

Monaco win without conceding15%

Paris FC score 2 or more47%

Monaco score 2 or more42%

Recent form

Paris FC

L @ Lens1–2 · 24 Oct

W v Rennes4–3 · 18 Oct

L @ Lorient0–1 · 10 Oct

W v Strasbourg2–1 · 19 Sep

D v Lyon0–0 · 12 Sep

Monaco

D v Lille1–1 · 25 Oct

L @ Lorient0–1 · 18 Oct

D v Toulouse2–2 · 10 Oct

W v Lens2–1 · 18 Sep

D @ Strasbourg1–1 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Paris FC won 2, Monaco won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Apr 2026, finished Paris FC 4–1 Monaco, a win for Paris FC.

Paris FC 4–1 Monaco10 Apr 2026

Monaco 0–1 Paris FC1 Nov 2025

Season averages per game

PAMO

1.62

Goals

1.38

1.12

Conceded

0.88

1.79

1.25

1.02

xG against

1.26

13.2

Shots

12.9

4.5

On target

4.6

3.5

Corners

4.0

2.38

Yellow cards

2.25

38%

Clean sheets

25%

50%

Both score

62%

3+ goals

38%

Questions and answers

Who will win Paris FC vs Monaco?

GossipBall gives Paris FC a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Monaco 34%. GossipBall makes Paris FC slight favourites to beat Monaco at home.

What is the most likely score in Paris FC vs Monaco?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).

Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Monaco?

GossipBall gives a 61% chance that both Paris FC and Monaco score.

Will there be three or more goals in Paris FC vs Monaco?

There is a 58% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.6 for Paris FC, 1.4 for Monaco).

When is Paris FC vs Monaco?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Monaco?

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Paris FC won 2, Monaco won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Apr 2026, finished Paris FC 4–1 Monaco, a win for Paris FC.