Ligue 1Matchday 10Friday 6 November 2026 · 19:45

Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction

Toulouse

43%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.0% chance

26%

draw

Strasbourg

32%

away win

Win probability: home 43%, draw 26%, away 32%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Toulouse slight favourites to beat Strasbourg at home in the Ligue 1 on Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Toulouse a 43% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Strasbourg 32%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Toulouse and 1.3 from Strasbourg, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 55% chance of three or more goals and a 59% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 27% of outcomes, Strasbourg in 21%.

Toulouse are 11th in the table with 10 points from 8 games; Strasbourg are 16th with 7. In their last five league games Toulouse took 9 points (DWDWD) and Strasbourg took 1 (DLLLL). This season Toulouse average 1.87 expected goals (xG) for and 1.29 against per game; Strasbourg average 1.13 for and 1.96 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Toulouse won 3, Strasbourg won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse, a win for Toulouse.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Toulouse goalsColumns: Strasbourg goals

1–112.0%

2–19.0%

1–08.2%

1–27.6%

0–16.8%

2–06.8%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

79%

3 or more goals

55%

4 or more goals

33%

5 or more goals

17%

Both teams score

59%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.9 goals in total: 1.57 for Toulouse and 1.32 for Strasbourg.

Winning margin

Explained

Toulouse by 3

Toulouse by 2

13%

Toulouse by 1

21%

Draw

26%

Strasbourg by 3

Strasbourg by 2

Strasbourg by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Toulouse expected goals1.57

Strasbourg expected goals1.32

Toulouse keep a clean sheet27%

Strasbourg keep a clean sheet21%

Toulouse win without conceding21%

Strasbourg win without conceding15%

Toulouse score 2 or more46%

Strasbourg score 2 or more38%

Recent form

Toulouse

D v Troyes0–0 · 25 Oct

W @ Le Mans3–0 · 16 Oct

D @ Monaco2–2 · 10 Oct

W v Le Havre3–2 · 19 Sep

D @ Lorient2–2 · 12 Sep

Strasbourg

L @ Rennes0–3 · 25 Oct

L v Paris Saint-Germain1–3 · 17 Oct

L @ Nice1–2 · 11 Oct

L @ Paris FC1–2 · 19 Sep

D v Monaco1–1 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Toulouse won 3, Strasbourg won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse, a win for Toulouse.

Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse3 May 2026

Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg6 Dec 2025

Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse16 Mar 2025

Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg12 Jan 2025

Toulouse 0–0 Strasbourg7 Apr 2024

Strasbourg 2–0 Toulouse27 Aug 2023

Season averages per game

TOST

1.50

Goals

1.50

1.38

Conceded

2.25

1.87

1.13

1.29

xG against

1.96

12.8

Shots

12.2

4.4

On target

4.9

4.1

Corners

2.4

2.12

Yellow cards

1.75

25%

Clean sheets

50%

Both score

75%

62%

3+ goals

88%

Questions and answers

Who will win Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

GossipBall gives Toulouse a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Strasbourg 32%. GossipBall makes Toulouse slight favourites to beat Strasbourg at home.

What is the most likely score in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%).

Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

GossipBall gives a 59% chance that both Toulouse and Strasbourg score.

Will there be three or more goals in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

There is a 55% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total (1.6 for Toulouse, 1.3 for Strasbourg).

When is Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

Kick-off is Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Strasbourg?

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Toulouse won 3, Strasbourg won 3 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse, a win for Toulouse.