Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest result and stats
Win probability: home 45%, draw 27%, away 27%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersNottingham Forest won 2–1 away at Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday 12 September 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Aston Villa 45%, the draw 27% and Nottingham Forest 27%, so an away win had a 27% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Aston Villa 0.82, Nottingham Forest 2.28, so Nottingham Forest created the better chances. Aston Villa had 7 shots (5 on target) to Nottingham Forest's 22 (7 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
AVNF
0.82Expected goals2.28
7Shots22
5On target7
6Corners1
11Fouls16
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
0Half-time goals0
Referee: A Madley
Recent form
Aston Villa
D @ Hull0–0 · 5 Sep
L v Arsenal0–1 · 31 Aug
L @ Brighton0–4 · 23 Aug
W @ Manchester City2–1 · 24 May
W v Liverpool4–2 · 15 May
Nottingham Forest
D v Tottenham0–0 · 5 Sep
D @ Liverpool2–2 · 29 Aug
L v Leeds0–1 · 22 Aug
D v Bournemouth1–1 · 24 May
L @ Manchester United2–3 · 17 May
Head to head
In 8 league meetings since 2022, Aston Villa won 4, Nottingham Forest won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, was a 1–1 draw.
Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa12 Apr 2026
Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest3 Jan 2026
Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham Forest5 Apr 2025
Nottingham Forest 2–1 Aston Villa14 Dec 2024
Aston Villa 4–2 Nottingham Forest24 Feb 2024
Nottingham Forest 2–0 Aston Villa5 Nov 2023
Season averages per game
AVNF
1.12Goals0.75
1.50Conceded1.25
1.12xG1.73
1.61xG against1.10
11.4Shots17.1
3.0On target3.8
3.2Corners4.8
2.25Yellow cards2.12
25%Clean sheets12%
50%Both score50%
62%3+ goals38%