Premier LeagueMatchday 9Saturday 31 October 2026 · 12:30

Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction

Chelsea

43%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.9% chance

26%

draw

Manchester United

31%

away win

Win probability: home 43%, draw 26%, away 31%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Chelsea slight favourites to beat Manchester United at home in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC. It gives Chelsea a 43% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Manchester United 31%.

GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from Chelsea and 1.4 from Manchester United, so goals look likely: there is a 59% chance of three or more goals and a 62% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 25% of outcomes, Manchester United in 19%.

Chelsea are 5th in the table with 13 points from 8 games; Manchester United are 16th with 7. In their last five league games Chelsea took 7 points (DLWWL) and Manchester United took 3 (LDDDL). This season Chelsea average 1.23 expected goals (xG) for and 1.42 against per game; Manchester United average 1.57 for and 1.49 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Chelsea won 2, Manchester United won 4 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Chelsea 0–1 Manchester United, a win for Manchester United.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Chelsea goalsColumns: Manchester United goals

1–111.9%

2–19.1%

1–27.6%

1–07.0%

2–06.6%

2–26.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

82%

3 or more goals

59%

4 or more goals

36%

5 or more goals

19%

Both teams score

62%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.66 for Chelsea and 1.38 for Manchester United.

Winning margin

Explained

Chelsea by 3

Chelsea by 2

13%

Chelsea by 1

20%

Draw

26%

Manchester United by 3

Manchester United by 2

Manchester United by 1

17%

Each team's goals

Explained

Chelsea expected goals1.66

Manchester United expected goals1.38

Chelsea keep a clean sheet25%

Manchester United keep a clean sheet19%

Chelsea win without conceding19%

Manchester United win without conceding13%

Chelsea score 2 or more49%

Manchester United score 2 or more40%

Recent form

Chelsea

L v Tottenham0–2 · 24 Oct

W @ Everton2–0 · 17 Oct

W v Bournemouth5–1 · 10 Oct

L @ Brentford0–3 · 18 Sep

D v Hull2–2 · 12 Sep

Manchester United

L v Bournemouth0–3 · 25 Oct

D @ Leeds1–1 · 18 Oct

D v Tottenham1–1 · 10 Oct

D @ Fulham1–1 · 20 Sep

L v Manchester City0–1 · 13 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Chelsea won 2, Manchester United won 4 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Chelsea 0–1 Manchester United, a win for Manchester United.

Chelsea 0–1 Manchester United18 Apr 2026

Manchester United 2–1 Chelsea20 Sep 2025

Chelsea 1–0 Manchester United16 May 2025

Manchester United 1–1 Chelsea3 Nov 2024

Chelsea 4–3 Manchester United4 Apr 2024

Manchester United 2–1 Chelsea6 Dec 2023

Season averages per game

CHMU

2.12

Goals

1.25

1.88

Conceded

1.62

1.23

1.57

1.42

xG against

1.49

13.4

Shots

19.4

5.4

On target

5.0

5.6

Corners

6.0

2.12

Yellow cards

2.00

12%

Clean sheets

62%

Both score

62%

75%

3+ goals

38%

Questions and answers

Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?

GossipBall gives Chelsea a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Manchester United 31%. GossipBall makes Chelsea slight favourites to beat Manchester United at home.

What is the most likely score in Chelsea vs Manchester United?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Manchester United?

GossipBall gives a 62% chance that both Chelsea and Manchester United score.

Will there be three or more goals in Chelsea vs Manchester United?

There is a 59% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.7 for Chelsea, 1.4 for Manchester United).

When is Chelsea vs Manchester United?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Manchester United?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Chelsea won 2, Manchester United won 4 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Chelsea 0–1 Manchester United, a win for Manchester United.