Premier LeagueMatchday 10Sunday 8 November 2026 · 14:00

Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction

Sunderland

32%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.5% chance

28%

draw

Chelsea

40%

away win

Win probability: home 32%, draw 28%, away 40%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Chelsea slight favourites to beat Sunderland away from home in the Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC. It gives Sunderland a 32% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Chelsea 40%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Sunderland and 1.4 from Chelsea, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 49% chance of three or more goals and a 54% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 25% of outcomes, Chelsea in 29%.

Sunderland are 20th in the table with 5 points from 8 games; Chelsea are 5th with 13. In their last five league games Sunderland took 1 points (LLLLD) and Chelsea took 7 (DLWWL). This season Sunderland average 1.42 expected goals (xG) for and 1.88 against per game; Chelsea average 1.23 for and 1.42 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Sunderland won 2, Chelsea won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea, a win for Sunderland.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Sunderland goalsColumns: Chelsea goals

1–113.5%

0–19.0%

1–28.7%

0–08.3%

1–07.8%

2–17.6%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

75%

3 or more goals

49%

4 or more goals

27%

5 or more goals

13%

Both teams score

54%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.23 for Sunderland and 1.40 for Chelsea.

Winning margin

Explained

Sunderland by 3

Sunderland by 2

Sunderland by 1

18%

Draw

28%

Chelsea by 3

Chelsea by 2

12%

Chelsea by 1

21%

Each team's goals

Explained

Sunderland expected goals1.23

Chelsea expected goals1.40

Sunderland keep a clean sheet25%

Chelsea keep a clean sheet29%

Sunderland win without conceding16%

Chelsea win without conceding21%

Sunderland score 2 or more35%

Chelsea score 2 or more41%

Recent form

Sunderland

D v Leeds0–0 · 25 Oct

L @ Bournemouth0–2 · 18 Oct

L v Brighton0–2 · 10 Oct

L @ Manchester City3–5 · 20 Sep

L v Arsenal0–2 · 12 Sep

Chelsea

L v Tottenham0–2 · 24 Oct

W @ Everton2–0 · 17 Oct

W v Bournemouth5–1 · 10 Oct

L @ Brentford0–3 · 18 Sep

D v Hull2–2 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Sunderland won 2, Chelsea won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea, a win for Sunderland.

Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea24 May 2026

Chelsea 1–2 Sunderland25 Oct 2025

Season averages per game

SUCH

0.75

Goals

2.12

1.75

Conceded

1.88

1.42

1.23

1.88

xG against

1.42

12.0

Shots

13.4

4.0

On target

5.4

4.2

Corners

5.6

1.88

Yellow cards

2.12

25%

Clean sheets

12%

38%

Both score

62%

25%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?

GossipBall gives Sunderland a 32% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Chelsea 40%. GossipBall makes Chelsea slight favourites to beat Sunderland away from home.

What is the most likely score in Sunderland vs Chelsea?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 0–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Chelsea?

GossipBall gives a 54% chance that both Sunderland and Chelsea score.

Will there be three or more goals in Sunderland vs Chelsea?

There is a 49% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.2 for Sunderland, 1.4 for Chelsea).

When is Sunderland vs Chelsea?

Kick-off is Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Chelsea?

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Sunderland won 2, Chelsea won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea, a win for Sunderland.