Primeira LigaMatchday 10Sunday 1 November 2026 · 18:00

Maritimo vs Santa Clara prediction

Maritimo

28%

home win

likeliest score

0–1

15.2% chance

29%

draw

Santa Clara

43%

away win

Win probability: home 28%, draw 29%, away 43%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Santa Clara slight favourites to beat Maritimo away from home in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC. It gives Maritimo a 28% chance of winning, puts the draw at 29% and gives Santa Clara 43%.

GossipBall expects 0.9 goals from Maritimo and 1.2 from Santa Clara, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 34% chance of three or more goals and a 40% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 0–1 (15%). Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 31% of outcomes, Santa Clara in 41%.

Maritimo are 14th in the table with 8 points from 9 games; Santa Clara are 4th with 18. In their last five league games Maritimo took 1 points (LLDLL) and Santa Clara took 10 (WWDWL). This season Maritimo average 0.81 expected goals (xG) for and 1.46 against per game; Santa Clara average 1.29 for and 0.80 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Maritimo won 2, Santa Clara won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Feb 2023, finished Maritimo 3–1 Santa Clara, a win for Maritimo.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Maritimo goalsColumns: Santa Clara goals

0–115.2%

1–112.9%

0–012.3%

1–011.6%

0–28.8%

1–27.8%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

88%

2 or more goals

61%

3 or more goals

34%

4 or more goals

16%

5 or more goals

Both teams score

40%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.1 goals in total: 0.89 for Maritimo and 1.18 for Santa Clara.

Winning margin

Explained

Maritimo by 3

Maritimo by 2

Maritimo by 1

19%

Draw

29%

Santa Clara by 3

Santa Clara by 2

12%

Santa Clara by 1

25%

Each team's goals

Explained

Maritimo expected goals0.89

Santa Clara expected goals1.18

Maritimo keep a clean sheet31%

Santa Clara keep a clean sheet41%

Maritimo win without conceding19%

Santa Clara win without conceding29%

Maritimo score 2 or more22%

Santa Clara score 2 or more33%

Recent form

Maritimo

L @ Vitória SC0–5 · 23 Oct

L v Porto1–2 · 10 Oct

D @ Gil Vicente1–1 · 19 Sep

L @ Moreirense1–3 · 14 Sep

L v Benfica0–3 · 5 Sep

Santa Clara

L v Benfica1–2 · 26 Oct

W @ Casa Pia1–0 · 10 Oct

D v Sp Braga0–0 · 20 Sep

W @ Arouca2–1 · 13 Sep

W v Rio Ave4–0 · 6 Sep

Head to head

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Maritimo won 2, Santa Clara won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Feb 2023, finished Maritimo 3–1 Santa Clara, a win for Maritimo.

Maritimo 3–1 Santa Clara25 Feb 2023

Santa Clara 2–1 Maritimo4 Sep 2022

Santa Clara 2–2 Maritimo23 Apr 2022

Maritimo 4–1 Santa Clara11 Dec 2021

Season averages per game

MASC

1.00

Goals

1.44

2.11

Conceded

0.67

0.81

1.29

1.46

xG against

0.80

10.0

Shots

13.2

3.1

On target

3.8

3.1

Corners

3.9

1.89

Yellow cards

3.00

11%

Clean sheets

56%

67%

Both score

44%

78%

3+ goals

44%

Questions and answers

Who will win Maritimo vs Santa Clara?

GossipBall gives Maritimo a 28% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Santa Clara 43%. GossipBall makes Santa Clara slight favourites to beat Maritimo away from home.

What is the most likely score in Maritimo vs Santa Clara?

The likeliest single score is 0–1, with a 15% chance. The next most likely are 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%), 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Santa Clara?

GossipBall gives a 40% chance that both Maritimo and Santa Clara score.

Will there be three or more goals in Maritimo vs Santa Clara?

There is a 34% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.1 goals in total (0.9 for Maritimo, 1.2 for Santa Clara).

When is Maritimo vs Santa Clara?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Santa Clara?

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Maritimo won 2, Santa Clara won 1 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Feb 2023, finished Maritimo 3–1 Santa Clara, a win for Maritimo.