Serie AMatchday 10Sunday 1 November 2026 · 17:00

Lecce vs Genoa prediction

Lecce

29%

home win

likeliest score

0–1

14.9% chance

31%

draw

Genoa

40%

away win

Win probability: home 29%, draw 31%, away 40%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Genoa slight favourites to beat Lecce away from home in the Serie A on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC. It gives Lecce a 29% chance of winning, puts the draw at 31% and gives Genoa 40%.

GossipBall expects 0.9 goals from Lecce and 1.1 from Genoa, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 32% chance of three or more goals and a 39% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 0–1 (15%). Lecce keep a clean sheet in 34% of outcomes, Genoa in 41%.

Lecce are 14th in the table with 9 points from 8 games; Genoa are 13th with 10. In their last five league games Lecce took 6 points (WLLWL) and Genoa took 9 (LWLWW). This season Lecce average 1.38 expected goals (xG) for and 1.86 against per game; Genoa average 0.88 for and 1.33 against.

In 6 league meetings since 2023, Lecce won 2, Genoa won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Lecce 1–0 Genoa, a win for Lecce.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Lecce goalsColumns: Genoa goals

0–114.9%

0–014.2%

1–113.7%

1–012.0%

0–28.3%

1–27.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

86%

2 or more goals

59%

3 or more goals

32%

4 or more goals

14%

5 or more goals

Both teams score

39%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.0 goals in total: 0.88 for Lecce and 1.09 for Genoa.

Winning margin

Explained

Lecce by 3

Lecce by 2

Lecce by 1

19%

Draw

31%

Genoa by 3

Genoa by 2

11%

Genoa by 1

23%

Each team's goals

Explained

Lecce expected goals0.88

Genoa expected goals1.09

Lecce keep a clean sheet34%

Genoa keep a clean sheet41%

Lecce win without conceding19%

Genoa win without conceding27%

Lecce score 2 or more22%

Genoa score 2 or more30%

Recent form

Lecce

L v Juventus0–2 · 25 Oct

W @ Udinese3–0 · 18 Oct

L v Bologna1–2 · 11 Oct

L @ Milan0–3 · 20 Sep

W v Monza3–2 · 13 Sep

Genoa

W v Juventus2–0 · 28 Oct

W v Venezia1–0 · 25 Oct

L @ Roma0–2 · 17 Oct

W v Fiorentina2–1 · 10 Oct

L @ Parma1–2 · 20 Sep

Head to head

In 6 league meetings since 2023, Lecce won 2, Genoa won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Lecce 1–0 Genoa, a win for Lecce.

Lecce 1–0 Genoa24 May 2026

Genoa 0–0 Lecce23 Aug 2025

Genoa 2–1 Lecce14 Mar 2025

Lecce 0–0 Genoa5 Jan 2025

Genoa 2–1 Lecce28 Jan 2024

Lecce 1–0 Genoa22 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

LEGE

1.12

Goals

0.89

1.75

Conceded

1.44

1.38

0.88

1.86

xG against

1.33

11.8

Shots

11.0

4.6

On target

2.9

4.5

Corners

4.3

1.75

Yellow cards

2.33

25%

Clean sheets

22%

25%

Both score

44%

62%

3+ goals

33%

Questions and answers

Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?

GossipBall gives Lecce a 29% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Genoa 40%. GossipBall makes Genoa slight favourites to beat Lecce away from home.

What is the most likely score in Lecce vs Genoa?

The likeliest single score is 0–1, with a 15% chance. The next most likely are 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%), 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Lecce vs Genoa?

GossipBall gives a 39% chance that both Lecce and Genoa score.

Will there be three or more goals in Lecce vs Genoa?

There is a 32% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.0 goals in total (0.9 for Lecce, 1.1 for Genoa).

When is Lecce vs Genoa?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Genoa?

In 6 league meetings since 2023, Lecce won 2, Genoa won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Lecce 1–0 Genoa, a win for Lecce.