Serie AMatchday 11Saturday 7 November 2026 · 19:45

Roma vs Sassuolo prediction

Roma

66%

home win

likeliest score

2–0

10.9% chance

20%

draw

Sassuolo

14%

away win

Win probability: home 66%, draw 20%, away 14%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Roma clear favourites to beat Sassuolo at home in the Serie A on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Roma a 66% chance of winning, puts the draw at 20% and gives Sassuolo 14%.

GossipBall expects 2.2 goals from Roma and 0.9 from Sassuolo, so goals look likely: there is a 59% chance of three or more goals and a 53% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 2–0 (11%). Roma keep a clean sheet in 41% of outcomes, Sassuolo in 12%.

Roma are 3rd in the table with 21 points from 9 games; Sassuolo are 15th with 8. In their last five league games Roma took 9 points (DDWDW) and Sassuolo took 1 (LDLLL). This season Roma average 2.20 expected goals (xG) for and 1.32 against per game; Sassuolo average 1.44 for and 1.72 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Roma won 5, Sassuolo won 1 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Jan 2026, finished Roma 2–0 Sassuolo, a win for Roma.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Roma goalsColumns: Sassuolo goals

2–010.9%

1–010.0%

2–19.8%

1–19.3%

3–07.9%

3–17.1%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

81%

3 or more goals

59%

4 or more goals

36%

5 or more goals

19%

Both teams score

53%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.1 goals in total: 2.15 for Roma and 0.90 for Sassuolo.

Winning margin

Explained

Roma by 3

12%

Roma by 2

20%

Roma by 1

24%

Draw

20%

Sassuolo by 3

Sassuolo by 2

Sassuolo by 1

10%

Each team's goals

Explained

Roma expected goals2.15

Sassuolo expected goals0.90

Roma keep a clean sheet41%

Sassuolo keep a clean sheet12%

Roma win without conceding36%

Sassuolo win without conceding7%

Roma score 2 or more63%

Sassuolo score 2 or more23%

Recent form

Roma

W v Cagliari4–2 · 27 Oct

D @ Napoli3–3 · 24 Oct

W v Genoa2–0 · 17 Oct

D @ Como0–0 · 11 Oct

D v Inter2–2 · 19 Sep

Sassuolo

L v Lazio2–6 · 27 Oct

L @ Como0–2 · 24 Oct

L @ Frosinone2–4 · 16 Oct

D v Milan1–1 · 11 Oct

L @ Monza1–2 · 18 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Roma won 5, Sassuolo won 1 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Jan 2026, finished Roma 2–0 Sassuolo, a win for Roma.

Roma 2–0 Sassuolo10 Jan 2026

Sassuolo 0–1 Roma26 Oct 2025

Roma 1–0 Sassuolo17 Mar 2024

Sassuolo 1–2 Roma3 Dec 2023

Roma 3–4 Sassuolo12 Mar 2023

Sassuolo 1–1 Roma9 Nov 2022

Season averages per game

ROSA

2.56

Goals

1.56

0.89

Conceded

2.44

2.20

1.44

1.32

xG against

1.72

19.0

Shots

14.0

6.0

On target

5.1

6.0

Corners

4.0

2.00

Yellow cards

1.33

56%

Clean sheets

44%

Both score

89%

67%

3+ goals

78%

Questions and answers

Who will win Roma vs Sassuolo?

GossipBall gives Roma a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sassuolo 14%. GossipBall makes Roma clear favourites to beat Sassuolo at home.

What is the most likely score in Roma vs Sassuolo?

The likeliest single score is 2–0, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Roma vs Sassuolo?

GossipBall gives a 53% chance that both Roma and Sassuolo score.

Will there be three or more goals in Roma vs Sassuolo?

There is a 59% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total (2.2 for Roma, 0.9 for Sassuolo).

When is Roma vs Sassuolo?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Roma and Sassuolo?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Roma won 5, Sassuolo won 1 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Jan 2026, finished Roma 2–0 Sassuolo, a win for Roma.