BundesligaFriday 20 February 2026 · 19:30

Mainz vs Hamburg result and stats

Mainz

44%

test home win

1–1

full time

30%

draw

Hamburg

26%

test away win

Win probability: home 44%, draw 30%, away 26%

Match report

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

Mainz and Hamburg drew 1–1 in the Bundesliga on Friday 20 February 2026. This match was played before GossipBall launched. In a retrospective test using only results available before kick-off, GossipBall's ratings gave Mainz 44%, the draw 30% and Hamburg 26%, so a draw had a 30% chance. It would have been an upset.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 30 October 2026, 05:56 UTC

Match stats

MAHA

Shots

On target

Corners

Fouls

Yellow cards

Red cards

Half-time goals

Recent form

Mainz

L @ Borussia Dortmund0–4 · 13 Feb

W v Augsburg2–0 · 7 Feb

W @ RB Leipzig2–1 · 31 Jan

W v Wolfsburg3–1 · 24 Jan

L @ FC Köln1–2 · 17 Jan

Hamburg

W v Union Berlin3–2 · 14 Feb

W @ Heidenheim2–0 · 7 Feb

D v Bayern Munich2–2 · 31 Jan

D @ St Pauli0–0 · 23 Jan

D v Gladbach0–0 · 17 Jan

Head to head

In 1 league meeting since 2025, Mainz won 0, Hamburg won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 5 Oct 2025, finished Hamburg 4–0 Mainz, a win for Hamburg.

Hamburg 4–0 Mainz5 Oct 2025