BundesligaMatchday 11Saturday 28 November 2026 ·

FC Köln vs Elversberg prediction

39%
home win
predicted score
2–1
8.3% chance
24%
draw
37%
away win
Win probability: home 39%, draw 24%, away 37%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees FC Köln against Elversberg as too close to call in the Bundesliga on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC. It gives FC Köln a 39% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Elversberg 37%.

GossipBall expects 1.7 goals from FC Köln and 1.7 from Elversberg, so goals look likely: there is a 66% chance of three or more goals and a 68% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. FC Köln keep a clean sheet in 19% of outcomes, Elversberg in 18%.

FC Köln are 15th in the table with 9 points from 9 games; Elversberg are 7th with 13. In their last five league games FC Köln took 5 points (WLDDL) and Elversberg took 6 (LWLWL). This season FC Köln average 1.56 expected goals (xG) for and 1.56 against per game; Elversberg average 1.39 for and 2.08 against.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
5
5
3
1
<1
1
5
10
8
5
2
<1
2
5
8
7
4
2
<1
3
3
5
4
2
<1
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<1
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Rows: FC Köln goalsColumns: Elversberg goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (10%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–110.4%
2–18.3%
1–28.1%
2–27.0%
1–05.0%
2–04.9%
1 or more goals
96%
2 or more goals
86%
3 or more goals
66%
4 or more goals
44%
5 or more goals
26%
Both teams score
68%

GossipBall expects 3.4 goals in total: 1.71 for FC Köln and 1.69 for Elversberg.

Winning margin

Explained
FC Köln by 3
6%
FC Köln by 2
12%
FC Köln by 1
18%
Draw
24%
Elversberg by 3
5%
Elversberg by 2
11%
Elversberg by 1
18%

Each team's goals

Explained
FC Köln expected goals1.71
Elversberg expected goals1.69
FC Köln keep a clean sheet19%
Elversberg keep a clean sheet18%
FC Köln win without conceding14%
Elversberg win without conceding14%
FC Köln score 2 or more51%
Elversberg score 2 or more50%

Recent form

FC Köln
L v Bayer Leverkusen1–2 · 8 Nov
D @ Union Berlin1–1 · 1 Nov
D v Schalke 040–0 · 24 Oct
L @ Eintracht Frankfurt0–1 · 16 Oct
W v Gladbach2–1 · 11 Oct
Elversberg
L @ Borussia Dortmund1–2 · 7 Nov
W v Mainz4–1 · 30 Oct
L @ RB Leipzig0–4 · 24 Oct
W v Augsburg4–3 · 17 Oct
L @ Union Berlin0–1 · 10 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

KOEELV
1.11
Goals
1.89
1.56
Conceded
2.00
1.56
xG
1.39
1.56
xG against
2.08
15.2
Shots
11.2
5.0
On target
4.7
5.6
Corners
4.3
2.44
Yellow cards
1.78
11%
Clean sheets
11%
78%
Both score
67%
56%
3+ goals
78%

Questions and answers

Who will win FC Köln vs Elversberg?

GossipBall gives FC Köln a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Elversberg 37%. GossipBall sees FC Köln against Elversberg as too close to call.

What is the predicted score for FC Köln vs Elversberg?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.7 for FC Köln, 1.7 for Elversberg). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).

Will both teams score in FC Köln vs Elversberg?

GossipBall gives a 68% chance that both FC Köln and Elversberg score.

Will there be three or more goals in FC Köln vs Elversberg?

There is a 66% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.4 goals in total (1.7 for FC Köln, 1.7 for Elversberg).

When is FC Köln vs Elversberg?

Kick-off is Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC