BundesligaMatchday 10Saturday 21 November 2026 ·

Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

22%
home win
predicted score
1–2
9.8% chance
23%
draw
Win probability: home 22%, draw 23%, away 55%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Borussia Dortmund favourites to beat Gladbach away from home in the Bundesliga on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC. It gives Gladbach a 22% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Borussia Dortmund 55%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Gladbach and 1.9 from Borussia Dortmund, so goals look likely: there is a 60% chance of three or more goals and a 59% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Gladbach keep a clean sheet in 14% of outcomes, Borussia Dortmund in 32%.

Gladbach are 18th in the table with 4 points from 8 games; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd with 18. In their last five league games Gladbach took 4 points (LLLWD) and Borussia Dortmund took 9 (WDDWD). This season Gladbach average 1.56 expected goals (xG) for and 2.17 against per game; Borussia Dortmund average 1.53 for and 1.40 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Gladbach won 3, Borussia Dortmund won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Gladbach 1–0 Borussia Dortmund, a win for Gladbach.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
8
9
6
3
1
1
4
11
10
6
3
1
2
3
6
6
4
2
<1
3
1
2
2
1
<1
<1
4
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
Rows: Gladbach goalsColumns: Borussia Dortmund goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (11%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–110.9%
1–29.8%
0–28.5%
0–18.0%
1–36.4%
2–15.8%
1 or more goals
95%
2 or more goals
82%
3 or more goals
60%
4 or more goals
38%
5 or more goals
20%
Both teams score
59%

GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total: 1.15 for Gladbach and 1.95 for Borussia Dortmund.

Winning margin

Explained
Gladbach by 3
2%
Gladbach by 2
6%
Gladbach by 1
13%
Draw
23%
Borussia Dortmund by 3
9%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
17%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
22%

Each team's goals

Explained
Gladbach expected goals1.15
Borussia Dortmund expected goals1.95
Gladbach keep a clean sheet14%
Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet32%
Gladbach win without conceding9%
Borussia Dortmund win without conceding26%
Gladbach score 2 or more32%
Borussia Dortmund score 2 or more58%

Recent form

Gladbach
D v Paderborn0–0 · 31 Oct
W @ Stuttgart3–2 · 23 Oct
L v Hoffenheim1–2 · 18 Oct
L @ FC Köln1–2 · 11 Oct
L v Mainz3–4 · 19 Sep
Borussia Dortmund
D @ Bayern Munich2–2 · 31 Oct
W v Eintracht Frankfurt1–0 · 24 Oct
D @ Union Berlin0–0 · 17 Oct
D v Werder Bremen2–2 · 9 Oct
W @ Stuttgart1–0 · 19 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Gladbach won 3, Borussia Dortmund won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Gladbach 1–0 Borussia Dortmund, a win for Gladbach.

Gladbach 1–0 Borussia Dortmund3 May 2026
Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Gladbach19 Dec 2025
Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Gladbach20 Apr 2025
Gladbach 1–1 Borussia Dortmund7 Dec 2024
Gladbach 1–2 Borussia Dortmund13 Apr 2024
Borussia Dortmund 4–2 Gladbach25 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

BMGBVB
1.38
Goals
1.75
2.75
Conceded
0.75
1.56
xG
1.53
2.17
xG against
1.40
14.9
Shots
14.9
4.6
On target
5.2
5.6
Corners
5.5
3.12
Yellow cards
2.00
12%
Clean sheets
62%
62%
Both score
38%
88%
3+ goals
50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

GossipBall gives Gladbach a 22% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Borussia Dortmund 55%. GossipBall makes Borussia Dortmund favourites to beat Gladbach away from home.

What is the predicted score for Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.2 for Gladbach, 1.9 for Borussia Dortmund). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%).

Will both teams score in Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

GossipBall gives a 59% chance that both Gladbach and Borussia Dortmund score.

Will there be three or more goals in Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

There is a 60% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total (1.2 for Gladbach, 1.9 for Borussia Dortmund).

When is Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

Kick-off is Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Gladbach and Borussia Dortmund?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Gladbach won 3, Borussia Dortmund won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Gladbach 1–0 Borussia Dortmund, a win for Gladbach.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC