Hamburg vs Mainz result and stats
Win probability: home 35%, draw 29%, away 36%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersMainz won 5–0 away at Hamburg in the Bundesliga on Sunday 6 September 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Hamburg 35%, the draw 29% and Mainz 36%, so an away win had a 36% chance. GossipBall's favourite result came in.
On expected goals it finished Hamburg 0.32, Mainz 2.78, so Mainz created the better chances. Hamburg had 8 shots (1 on target) to Mainz's 17 (8 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
HAMA
0.32Expected goals2.78
8Shots17
1On target8
4Corners5
14Fouls19
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Half-time goals2
Recent form
Hamburg
L @ Borussia Dortmund0–2 · 29 Aug
D @ Bayer Leverkusen1–1 · 16 May
W v Freiburg3–2 · 10 May
W @ Eintracht Frankfurt2–1 · 2 May
L v Hoffenheim1–2 · 25 Apr
Mainz
D v Paderborn0–0 · 29 Aug
W @ Heidenheim2–0 · 16 May
L v Union Berlin1–3 · 10 May
W @ St Pauli2–1 · 3 May
L v Bayern Munich3–4 · 25 Apr
Head to head
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Hamburg won 1, Mainz won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 20 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.
Mainz 1–1 Hamburg20 Feb 2026
Hamburg 4–0 Mainz5 Oct 2025
Season averages per game
HAMA
0.86Goals2.29
2.29Conceded1.86
0.99xG2.21
1.80xG against1.59
10.7Shots17.7
3.3On target6.3
3.7Corners5.0
1.43Yellow cards2.29
14%Clean sheets43%
29%Both score57%
57%3+ goals71%