BundesligaMatchday 11Sunday 29 November 2026 ·

Hoffenheim vs Augsburg prediction

54%
home win
predicted score
3–1
6.7% chance
22%
draw
24%
away win
Win probability: home 54%, draw 22%, away 24%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Hoffenheim favourites to beat Augsburg at home in the Bundesliga on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC. It gives Hoffenheim a 54% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Augsburg 24%.

GossipBall expects 2.1 goals from Hoffenheim and 1.4 from Augsburg, so goals look likely: there is a 69% chance of three or more goals and a 67% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 3–1. Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet in 25% of outcomes, Augsburg in 12%.

Hoffenheim are 9th in the table with 12 points from 9 games; Augsburg are 14th with 9. In their last five league games Hoffenheim took 9 points (LWWLW) and Augsburg took 2 (DLDLL). This season Hoffenheim average 1.89 expected goals (xG) for and 1.45 against per game; Augsburg average 2.03 for and 2.51 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Hoffenheim won 5, Augsburg won 1 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Apr 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
3
3
1
<1
<1
1
6
9
6
3
<1
<1
2
7
9
6
3
1
<1
3
5
7
5
2
<1
<1
4
3
4
2
1
<1
<1
5
1
2
1
<1
<1
Rows: Hoffenheim goalsColumns: Augsburg goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (9%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–19.3%
2–19.3%
2–06.7%
3–16.7%
2–26.5%
1–26.1%
1 or more goals
96%
2 or more goals
87%
3 or more goals
69%
4 or more goals
47%
5 or more goals
28%
Both teams score
67%

GossipBall expects 3.5 goals in total: 2.14 for Hoffenheim and 1.39 for Augsburg.

Winning margin

Explained
Hoffenheim by 3
10%
Hoffenheim by 2
16%
Hoffenheim by 1
21%
Draw
22%
Augsburg by 3
3%
Augsburg by 2
7%
Augsburg by 1
13%

Each team's goals

Explained
Hoffenheim expected goals2.14
Augsburg expected goals1.39
Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet25%
Augsburg keep a clean sheet12%
Hoffenheim win without conceding21%
Augsburg win without conceding8%
Hoffenheim score 2 or more63%
Augsburg score 2 or more41%

Recent form

Hoffenheim
W v Schalke 042–1 · 8 Nov
L @ Werder Bremen0–2 · 31 Oct
W v Bayer Leverkusen3–0 · 25 Oct
W @ Gladbach2–1 · 18 Oct
L v Hamburg2–3 · 10 Oct
Augsburg
L @ RB Leipzig2–5 · 7 Nov
L v Freiburg1–2 · 31 Oct
D v Union Berlin1–1 · 24 Oct
L @ Elversberg3–4 · 17 Oct
D v Bayern Munich2–2 · 10 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Hoffenheim won 5, Augsburg won 1 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Apr 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

Augsburg 2–2 Hoffenheim10 Apr 2026
Hoffenheim 3–0 Augsburg29 Nov 2025
Hoffenheim 1–1 Augsburg29 Mar 2025
Augsburg 0–0 Hoffenheim10 Nov 2024
Hoffenheim 3–1 Augsburg7 Apr 2024
Augsburg 1–1 Hoffenheim11 Nov 2023

Season averages per game

TSGFCA
1.78
Goals
2.22
1.89
Conceded
2.22
1.89
xG
2.03
1.45
xG against
2.51
17.6
Shots
16.9
5.2
On target
6.7
6.1
Corners
4.9
1.67
Yellow cards
1.56
11%
Clean sheets
11%
78%
Both score
89%
89%
3+ goals
89%

Questions and answers

Who will win Hoffenheim vs Augsburg?

GossipBall gives Hoffenheim a 54% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Augsburg 24%. GossipBall makes Hoffenheim favourites to beat Augsburg at home.

What is the predicted score for Hoffenheim vs Augsburg?

GossipBall's predicted score is 3–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.1 for Hoffenheim, 1.4 for Augsburg). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%).

Will both teams score in Hoffenheim vs Augsburg?

GossipBall gives a 67% chance that both Hoffenheim and Augsburg score.

Will there be three or more goals in Hoffenheim vs Augsburg?

There is a 69% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.5 goals in total (2.1 for Hoffenheim, 1.4 for Augsburg).

When is Hoffenheim vs Augsburg?

Kick-off is Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Hoffenheim and Augsburg?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Hoffenheim won 5, Augsburg won 1 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 10 Apr 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC