BundesligaMatchday 9Saturday 7 November 2026 · 14:30

Mainz vs Bayern Munich prediction

Mainz

14%

home win

likeliest score

1–2

8.9% chance

17%

draw

Bayern Munich

69%

away win

Win probability: home 14%, draw 17%, away 69%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Bayern Munich clear favourites to beat Mainz away from home in the Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC. It gives Mainz a 14% chance of winning, puts the draw at 17% and gives Bayern Munich 69%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Mainz and 2.7 from Bayern Munich, so goals look likely: there is a 74% chance of three or more goals and a 65% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–2 (9%). Mainz keep a clean sheet in 7% of outcomes, Bayern Munich in 30%.

Mainz are 7th in the table with 10 points from 7 games; Bayern Munich are 1st with 17. In their last five league games Mainz took 6 points (LWLWL) and Bayern Munich took 13 (WWDWW). This season Mainz average 2.21 expected goals (xG) for and 1.59 against per game; Bayern Munich average 3.41 for and 0.93 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Mainz won 3, Bayern Munich won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Mainz 3–4 Bayern Munich, a win for Bayern Munich.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Mainz goalsColumns: Bayern Munich goals

1–28.9%

1–38.0%

0–27.4%

1–17.1%

0–36.7%

1–45.4%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

97%

2 or more goals

90%

3 or more goals

74%

4 or more goals

54%

5 or more goals

35%

Both teams score

65%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.9 goals in total: 1.19 for Mainz and 2.69 for Bayern Munich.

Winning margin

Explained

Mainz by 3

Mainz by 2

Mainz by 1

Draw

17%

Bayern Munich by 3

14%

Bayern Munich by 2

19%

Bayern Munich by 1

20%

Each team's goals

Explained

Mainz expected goals1.19

Bayern Munich expected goals2.69

Mainz keep a clean sheet7%

Bayern Munich keep a clean sheet30%

Mainz win without conceding4%

Bayern Munich win without conceding28%

Mainz score 2 or more33%

Bayern Munich score 2 or more75%

Recent form

Mainz

L v Werder Bremen2–3 · 24 Oct

W @ Schalke 041–0 · 17 Oct

L v Bayer Leverkusen3–4 · 10 Oct

W @ Gladbach4–3 · 19 Sep

L v Eintracht Frankfurt1–3 · 12 Sep

Bayern Munich

W @ Freiburg3–1 · 25 Oct

W v RB Leipzig6–1 · 17 Oct

D @ Augsburg2–2 · 10 Oct

W v Union Berlin7–0 · 18 Sep

W @ Elversberg2–1 · 13 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Mainz won 3, Bayern Munich won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Mainz 3–4 Bayern Munich, a win for Bayern Munich.

Mainz 3–4 Bayern Munich25 Apr 2026

Bayern Munich 2–2 Mainz14 Dec 2025

Bayern Munich 3–0 Mainz26 Apr 2025

Mainz 2–1 Bayern Munich14 Dec 2024

Bayern Munich 8–1 Mainz9 Mar 2024

Mainz 1–3 Bayern Munich21 Oct 2023

Season averages per game

MABM

2.29

Goals

3.57

1.86

Conceded

0.86

2.21

3.41

1.59

xG against

0.93

17.7

Shots

23.3

6.3

On target

10.1

5.0

Corners

9.1

2.29

Yellow cards

0.86

43%

Clean sheets

29%

57%

Both score

71%

3+ goals

86%

Questions and answers

Who will win Mainz vs Bayern Munich?

GossipBall gives Mainz a 14% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Bayern Munich 69%. GossipBall makes Bayern Munich clear favourites to beat Mainz away from home.

What is the most likely score in Mainz vs Bayern Munich?

The likeliest single score is 1–2, with a 9% chance. The next most likely are 1–3 (8%), 0–2 (7%), 1–1 (7%).

Will both teams score in Mainz vs Bayern Munich?

GossipBall gives a 65% chance that both Mainz and Bayern Munich score.

Will there be three or more goals in Mainz vs Bayern Munich?

There is a 74% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.9 goals in total (1.2 for Mainz, 2.7 for Bayern Munich).

When is Mainz vs Bayern Munich?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Mainz and Bayern Munich?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Mainz won 3, Bayern Munich won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Mainz 3–4 Bayern Munich, a win for Bayern Munich.