Mainz vs Paderborn result and stats
Win probability: home 46%, draw 27%, away 28%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersMainz and Paderborn drew 0–0 in the Bundesliga on Saturday 29 August 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Mainz 46%, the draw 27% and Paderborn 28%, so a draw had a 27% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Mainz 1.23, Paderborn 0.73, so Mainz created the better chances. Mainz had 21 shots (4 on target) to Paderborn's 10 (0 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
MAPA
1.23Expected goals0.73
21Shots10
4On target0
11Corners2
8Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
0Half-time goals0
Recent form
Mainz
W @ Heidenheim2–0 · 16 May
L v Union Berlin1–3 · 10 May
W @ St Pauli2–1 · 3 May
L v Bayern Munich3–4 · 25 Apr
D @ Gladbach1–1 · 19 Apr
Paderborn
No earlier games in this league in our data (for example, newly promoted).
Head to head
These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.
Season averages per game
MAPA
2.29Goals0.86
1.86Conceded1.29
2.21xG1.02
1.59xG against1.70
17.7Shots14.0
6.3On target3.4
5.0Corners4.6
2.29Yellow cards1.29
43%Clean sheets29%
57%Both score29%
71%3+ goals43%