ChampionshipMatchday 14Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 20:00

Birmingham vs Millwall prediction

Birmingham

39%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.6% chance

29%

draw

Millwall

32%

away win

Win probability: home 39%, draw 29%, away 32%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Birmingham slight favourites to beat Millwall at home in the Championship on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Birmingham a 39% chance of winning, puts the draw at 29% and gives Millwall 32%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Birmingham and 1.1 from Millwall, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 42% chance of three or more goals and a 48% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (14%). Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 33% of outcomes, Millwall in 29%.

Birmingham are 7th in the table with 20 points from 12 games; Millwall are 13th with 15. In their last five league games Birmingham took 10 points (DWWWL) and Millwall took 5 (DWLDL). This season Birmingham average 1.70 expected goals (xG) for and 1.38 against per game; Millwall average 1.77 for and 1.33 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Birmingham won 2, Millwall won 3 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Feb 2026, finished Millwall 3–0 Birmingham, a win for Millwall.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Birmingham goalsColumns: Millwall goals

1–113.6%

1–011.4%

0–110.2%

0–010.1%

2–18.1%

2–07.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

90%

2 or more goals

68%

3 or more goals

42%

4 or more goals

21%

5 or more goals

Both teams score

48%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.3 goals in total: 1.24 for Birmingham and 1.11 for Millwall.

Winning margin

Explained

Birmingham by 3

Birmingham by 2

11%

Birmingham by 1

22%

Draw

29%

Millwall by 3

Millwall by 2

Millwall by 1

19%

Each team's goals

Explained

Birmingham expected goals1.24

Millwall expected goals1.11

Birmingham keep a clean sheet33%

Millwall keep a clean sheet29%

Birmingham win without conceding23%

Millwall win without conceding19%

Birmingham score 2 or more35%

Millwall score 2 or more30%

Recent form

Birmingham

L @ Cardiff0–1 · 24 Oct

W v QPR3–0 · 17 Oct

W v Preston4–0 · 13 Oct

W @ West Brom1–0 · 10 Oct

D v Middlesbrough2–2 · 19 Sep

Millwall

L @ Portsmouth1–2 · 24 Oct

D v Lincoln2–2 · 17 Oct

L v Swansea0–1 · 13 Oct

W @ Preston1–0 · 10 Oct

D v West Ham2–2 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Birmingham won 2, Millwall won 3 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Feb 2026, finished Millwall 3–0 Birmingham, a win for Millwall.

Millwall 3–0 Birmingham25 Feb 2026

Birmingham 4–0 Millwall4 Nov 2025

Millwall 1–0 Birmingham9 Mar 2024

Birmingham 1–1 Millwall2 Sep 2023

Millwall 0–1 Birmingham18 Apr 2023

Birmingham 0–0 Millwall2 Nov 2022

Season averages per game

BIMI

1.67

Goals

1.58

1.00

Conceded

1.67

1.70

1.77

1.38

xG against

1.33

13.2

Shots

13.9

4.6

On target

3.9

5.5

Corners

5.8

2.08

Yellow cards

2.00

33%

Clean sheets

33%

58%

Both score

50%

67%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Birmingham vs Millwall?

GossipBall gives Birmingham a 39% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Millwall 32%. GossipBall makes Birmingham slight favourites to beat Millwall at home.

What is the most likely score in Birmingham vs Millwall?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 14% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Millwall?

GossipBall gives a 48% chance that both Birmingham and Millwall score.

Will there be three or more goals in Birmingham vs Millwall?

There is a 42% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.3 goals in total (1.2 for Birmingham, 1.1 for Millwall).

When is Birmingham vs Millwall?

Kick-off is Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Millwall?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Birmingham won 2, Millwall won 3 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Feb 2026, finished Millwall 3–0 Birmingham, a win for Millwall.