ChampionshipMatchday 15Saturday 7 November 2026 · 15:00

Birmingham vs Swansea prediction

Birmingham

43%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.2% chance

28%

draw

Swansea

29%

away win

Win probability: home 43%, draw 28%, away 29%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Birmingham slight favourites to beat Swansea at home in the Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Birmingham a 43% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Swansea 29%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Birmingham and 1.1 from Swansea, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 45% chance of three or more goals and a 50% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 34% of outcomes, Swansea in 25%.

Birmingham are 7th in the table with 20 points from 12 games; Swansea are 3rd with 23. In their last five league games Birmingham took 10 points (DWWWL) and Swansea took 9 (WWWLL). This season Birmingham average 1.70 expected goals (xG) for and 1.38 against per game; Swansea average 1.51 for and 1.35 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Birmingham won 3, Swansea won 0 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Birmingham goalsColumns: Swansea goals

1–113.2%

1–011.2%

0–08.9%

2–18.8%

0–18.7%

2–08.1%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

91%

2 or more goals

71%

3 or more goals

45%

4 or more goals

24%

5 or more goals

11%

Both teams score

50%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.39 for Birmingham and 1.08 for Swansea.

Winning margin

Explained

Birmingham by 3

Birmingham by 2

13%

Birmingham by 1

23%

Draw

28%

Swansea by 3

Swansea by 2

Swansea by 1

18%

Each team's goals

Explained

Birmingham expected goals1.39

Swansea expected goals1.08

Birmingham keep a clean sheet34%

Swansea keep a clean sheet25%

Birmingham win without conceding25%

Swansea win without conceding16%

Birmingham score 2 or more41%

Swansea score 2 or more30%

Recent form

Birmingham

L @ Cardiff0–1 · 24 Oct

W v QPR3–0 · 17 Oct

W v Preston4–0 · 13 Oct

W @ West Brom1–0 · 10 Oct

D v Middlesbrough2–2 · 19 Sep

Swansea

L @ QPR0–5 · 24 Oct

L v West Ham0–1 · 17 Oct

W @ Millwall1–0 · 13 Oct

W v Norwich2–1 · 10 Oct

W @ Lincoln2–1 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Birmingham won 3, Swansea won 0 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

Swansea 1–1 Birmingham17 Jan 2026

Birmingham 1–0 Swansea20 Sep 2025

Birmingham 2–2 Swansea13 Jan 2024

Swansea 1–1 Birmingham5 Aug 2023

Swansea 3–4 Birmingham4 Feb 2023

Birmingham 2–2 Swansea8 Nov 2022

Season averages per game

BISW

1.67

Goals

1.33

1.00

Conceded

1.08

1.70

1.51

1.38

xG against

1.35

13.2

Shots

11.8

4.6

On target

4.3

5.5

Corners

4.3

2.08

Yellow cards

1.67

33%

Clean sheets

42%

58%

Both score

42%

67%

3+ goals

58%

Questions and answers

Who will win Birmingham vs Swansea?

GossipBall gives Birmingham a 43% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Swansea 29%. GossipBall makes Birmingham slight favourites to beat Swansea at home.

What is the most likely score in Birmingham vs Swansea?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (11%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Swansea?

GossipBall gives a 50% chance that both Birmingham and Swansea score.

Will there be three or more goals in Birmingham vs Swansea?

There is a 45% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.4 for Birmingham, 1.1 for Swansea).

When is Birmingham vs Swansea?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Swansea?

In 8 league meetings since 2021, Birmingham won 3, Swansea won 0 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, was a 1–1 draw.