ChampionshipMatchday 15Saturday 7 November 2026 · 15:00

Cardiff vs Burnley prediction

Cardiff

25%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.1% chance

25%

draw

Burnley

50%

away win

Win probability: home 25%, draw 25%, away 50%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Burnley favourites to beat Cardiff away from home in the Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Cardiff a 25% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Burnley 50%.

GossipBall expects 1.1 goals from Cardiff and 1.6 from Burnley, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 51% chance of three or more goals and a 54% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 20% of outcomes, Burnley in 34%.

Cardiff are 16th in the table with 14 points from 12 games; Burnley are 22nd with 8. In their last five league games Cardiff took 10 points (WLWDW) and Burnley took 5 (DWDLL). This season Cardiff average 1.93 expected goals (xG) for and 1.67 against per game; Burnley average 1.29 for and 1.63 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2022, Cardiff won 0, Burnley won 3 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 4 Mar 2025, finished Cardiff 1–2 Burnley, a win for Burnley.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Cardiff goalsColumns: Burnley goals

1–112.1%

0–110.3%

1–29.6%

0–28.8%

0–07.0%

1–06.7%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

76%

3 or more goals

51%

4 or more goals

29%

5 or more goals

14%

Both teams score

54%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.7 goals in total: 1.09 for Cardiff and 1.63 for Burnley.

Winning margin

Explained

Cardiff by 3

Cardiff by 2

Cardiff by 1

15%

Draw

25%

Burnley by 3

Burnley by 2

15%

Burnley by 1

23%

Each team's goals

Explained

Cardiff expected goals1.09

Burnley expected goals1.63

Cardiff keep a clean sheet20%

Burnley keep a clean sheet34%

Cardiff win without conceding13%

Burnley win without conceding27%

Cardiff score 2 or more30%

Burnley score 2 or more49%

Recent form

Cardiff

W v Birmingham1–0 · 24 Oct

D @ Middlesbrough2–2 · 17 Oct

W v Watford5–1 · 13 Oct

L @ Blackburn1–2 · 10 Oct

W v Charlton3–1 · 19 Sep

Burnley

L @ Lincoln1–4 · 24 Oct

L v Wolves1–2 · 16 Oct

D v Charlton2–2 · 13 Oct

W @ Watford4–0 · 10 Oct

D v Derby1–1 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 4 league meetings since 2022, Cardiff won 0, Burnley won 3 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 4 Mar 2025, finished Cardiff 1–2 Burnley, a win for Burnley.

Cardiff 1–2 Burnley4 Mar 2025

Burnley 5–0 Cardiff17 Aug 2024

Burnley 3–0 Cardiff8 May 2023

Cardiff 1–1 Burnley1 Oct 2022

Season averages per game

CABU

1.58

Goals

1.42

Conceded

2.08

1.93

1.29

1.67

xG against

1.63

17.1

Shots

13.8

5.9

On target

4.2

6.8

Corners

4.7

1.75

Yellow cards

2.00

Clean sheets

75%

Both score

92%

58%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Cardiff vs Burnley?

GossipBall gives Cardiff a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Burnley 50%. GossipBall makes Burnley favourites to beat Cardiff away from home.

What is the most likely score in Cardiff vs Burnley?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%).

Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burnley?

GossipBall gives a 54% chance that both Cardiff and Burnley score.

Will there be three or more goals in Cardiff vs Burnley?

There is a 51% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (1.1 for Cardiff, 1.6 for Burnley).

When is Cardiff vs Burnley?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?

In 4 league meetings since 2022, Cardiff won 0, Burnley won 3 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 4 Mar 2025, finished Cardiff 1–2 Burnley, a win for Burnley.