ChampionshipMatchday 13Saturday 31 October 2026 · 12:30

Lincoln vs Birmingham prediction

Lincoln

38%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.0% chance

27%

draw

Birmingham

35%

away win

Win probability: home 38%, draw 27%, away 35%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall sees Lincoln against Birmingham as too close to call in the Championship on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC. It gives Lincoln a 38% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Birmingham 35%.

GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Lincoln and 1.3 from Birmingham, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 48% chance of three or more goals and a 53% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 28% of outcomes, Birmingham in 26%.

Lincoln are 15th in the table with 15 points from 12 games; Birmingham are 7th with 20. In their last five league games Lincoln took 4 points (LLLDW) and Birmingham took 10 (DWWWL). This season Lincoln average 1.32 expected goals (xG) for and 1.46 against per game; Birmingham average 1.70 for and 1.38 against.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Lincoln goalsColumns: Birmingham goals

1–113.0%

1–09.5%

0–19.0%

2–18.3%

1–28.0%

0–07.9%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

74%

3 or more goals

48%

4 or more goals

26%

5 or more goals

12%

Both teams score

53%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.33 for Lincoln and 1.26 for Birmingham.

Winning margin

Explained

Lincoln by 3

Lincoln by 2

11%

Lincoln by 1

21%

Draw

27%

Birmingham by 3

Birmingham by 2

10%

Birmingham by 1

20%

Each team's goals

Explained

Lincoln expected goals1.33

Birmingham expected goals1.26

Lincoln keep a clean sheet28%

Birmingham keep a clean sheet26%

Lincoln win without conceding20%

Birmingham win without conceding19%

Lincoln score 2 or more38%

Birmingham score 2 or more36%

Recent form

Lincoln

W v Burnley4–1 · 24 Oct

D @ Millwall2–2 · 17 Oct

L v West Ham0–6 · 14 Oct

L @ Sheffield United0–3 · 10 Oct

L v Swansea1–2 · 19 Sep

Birmingham

L @ Cardiff0–1 · 24 Oct

W v QPR3–0 · 17 Oct

W v Preston4–0 · 13 Oct

W @ West Brom1–0 · 10 Oct

D v Middlesbrough2–2 · 19 Sep

Head to head

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

LIBI

1.08

Goals

1.67

Conceded

1.00

1.32

1.70

1.46

xG against

1.38

12.3

Shots

13.2

3.1

On target

4.6

3.5

Corners

5.5

2.33

Yellow cards

2.08

33%

Clean sheets

33%

50%

Both score

58%

3+ goals

67%

Questions and answers

Who will win Lincoln vs Birmingham?

GossipBall gives Lincoln a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Birmingham 35%. GossipBall sees Lincoln against Birmingham as too close to call.

What is the most likely score in Lincoln vs Birmingham?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%).

Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Birmingham?

GossipBall gives a 53% chance that both Lincoln and Birmingham score.

Will there be three or more goals in Lincoln vs Birmingham?

There is a 48% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.3 for Lincoln, 1.3 for Birmingham).

When is Lincoln vs Birmingham?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.