Watford vs Burnley result and stats
Win probability: home 21%, draw 28%, away 50%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersBurnley won 4–0 away at Watford in the Championship on Saturday 10 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Watford 21%, the draw 28% and Burnley 50%, so an away win had a 50% chance. GossipBall's favourite result came in.
On expected goals it finished Watford 0.64, Burnley 1.94, so Burnley created the better chances. Watford had 14 shots (6 on target) to Burnley's 17 (8 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
WABU
0.64Expected goals1.94
14Shots17
6On target8
6Corners2
8Fouls10
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
0Half-time goals3
Referee: A Madley
Recent form
Watford
L @ Bristol City0–1 · 18 Sep
L v Stoke1–2 · 12 Sep
W v Preston2–1 · 8 Sep
L @ West Brom0–1 · 5 Sep
L @ Swansea0–2 · 1 Sep
Burnley
D v Derby1–1 · 19 Sep
L @ Swansea1–3 · 12 Sep
D @ Wrexham1–1 · 8 Sep
L v Bristol City1–2 · 5 Sep
D v Middlesbrough1–1 · 2 Sep
Head to head
In 4 league meetings since 2022, Watford won 1, Burnley won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2025, finished Watford 1–2 Burnley, a win for Burnley.
Watford 1–2 Burnley18 Apr 2025
Burnley 2–1 Watford21 Dec 2024
Burnley 1–1 Watford14 Feb 2023
Watford 1–0 Burnley12 Aug 2022
Season averages per game
WABU
0.83Goals1.42
1.67Conceded2.08
1.03xG1.29
1.89xG against1.63
12.2Shots13.8
4.0On target4.2
3.5Corners4.7
2.75Yellow cards2.00
8%Clean sheets8%
50%Both score92%
42%3+ goals75%