ChampionshipMatchday 15Saturday 7 November 2026 · 15:00

Watford vs Middlesbrough prediction

Watford

25%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

12.0% chance

25%

draw

Middlesbrough

50%

away win

Win probability: home 25%, draw 25%, away 50%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Middlesbrough favourites to beat Watford away from home in the Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Watford a 25% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Middlesbrough 50%.

GossipBall expects 1.1 goals from Watford and 1.6 from Middlesbrough, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 52% chance of three or more goals and a 54% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Watford keep a clean sheet in 19% of outcomes, Middlesbrough in 34%.

Watford are 21st in the table with 11 points from 12 games; Middlesbrough are 1st with 25. In their last five league games Watford took 3 points (LLLWL) and Middlesbrough took 11 (DWWDW). This season Watford average 1.03 expected goals (xG) for and 1.89 against per game; Middlesbrough average 2.17 for and 1.01 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Watford won 4, Middlesbrough won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford, a win for Middlesbrough.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Watford goalsColumns: Middlesbrough goals

1–112.0%

0–110.2%

1–29.6%

0–28.8%

0–06.9%

1–06.7%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

93%

2 or more goals

76%

3 or more goals

52%

4 or more goals

29%

5 or more goals

14%

Both teams score

54%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.7 goals in total: 1.09 for Watford and 1.65 for Middlesbrough.

Winning margin

Explained

Watford by 3

Watford by 2

Watford by 1

15%

Draw

25%

Middlesbrough by 3

Middlesbrough by 2

15%

Middlesbrough by 1

23%

Each team's goals

Explained

Watford expected goals1.09

Middlesbrough expected goals1.65

Watford keep a clean sheet19%

Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet34%

Watford win without conceding12%

Middlesbrough win without conceding27%

Watford score 2 or more30%

Middlesbrough score 2 or more49%

Recent form

Watford

L @ Wolves0–1 · 24 Oct

W v Charlton2–0 · 17 Oct

L @ Cardiff1–5 · 13 Oct

L v Burnley0–4 · 10 Oct

L @ Bristol City0–1 · 18 Sep

Middlesbrough

W @ Bolton5–1 · 23 Oct

D v Cardiff2–2 · 17 Oct

W @ Stoke3–2 · 13 Oct

W v Wolves1–0 · 10 Oct

D @ Birmingham2–2 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Watford won 4, Middlesbrough won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford, a win for Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford25 Apr 2026

Watford 3–0 Middlesbrough1 Nov 2025

Middlesbrough 0–1 Watford15 Feb 2025

Watford 2–1 Middlesbrough5 Oct 2024

Middlesbrough 3–1 Watford4 May 2024

Watford 2–3 Middlesbrough30 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

WAMI

0.83

Goals

2.25

1.67

Conceded

1.42

1.03

2.17

1.89

xG against

1.01

12.2

Shots

20.1

4.0

On target

6.7

3.5

Corners

6.3

2.75

Yellow cards

1.00

Clean sheets

17%

50%

Both score

83%

42%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Watford vs Middlesbrough?

GossipBall gives Watford a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 50%. GossipBall makes Middlesbrough favourites to beat Watford away from home.

What is the most likely score in Watford vs Middlesbrough?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%).

Will both teams score in Watford vs Middlesbrough?

GossipBall gives a 54% chance that both Watford and Middlesbrough score.

Will there be three or more goals in Watford vs Middlesbrough?

There is a 52% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (1.1 for Watford, 1.6 for Middlesbrough).

When is Watford vs Middlesbrough?

Kick-off is Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Watford and Middlesbrough?

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Watford won 4, Middlesbrough won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford, a win for Middlesbrough.