ChampionshipMatchday 14Wednesday 4 November 2026 · 19:45

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough prediction

Wrexham

34%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.7% chance

25%

draw

Middlesbrough

41%

away win

Win probability: home 34%, draw 25%, away 41%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Middlesbrough slight favourites to beat Wrexham away from home in the Championship on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Wrexham a 34% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives Middlesbrough 41%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Wrexham and 1.6 from Middlesbrough, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 57% chance of three or more goals and a 60% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 21% of outcomes, Middlesbrough in 25%.

Wrexham are 17th in the table with 14 points from 12 games; Middlesbrough are 1st with 25. In their last five league games Wrexham took 7 points (WDLWL) and Middlesbrough took 11 (DWWDW). This season Wrexham average 1.16 expected goals (xG) for and 1.21 against per game; Middlesbrough average 2.17 for and 1.01 against.

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Wrexham won 0, Middlesbrough won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Wrexham goalsColumns: Middlesbrough goals

1–111.7%

1–28.9%

2–17.9%

0–17.7%

1–06.8%

0–26.3%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

80%

3 or more goals

57%

4 or more goals

34%

5 or more goals

18%

Both teams score

60%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.40 for Wrexham and 1.57 for Middlesbrough.

Winning margin

Explained

Wrexham by 3

Wrexham by 2

10%

Wrexham by 1

18%

Draw

25%

Middlesbrough by 3

Middlesbrough by 2

12%

Middlesbrough by 1

20%

Each team's goals

Explained

Wrexham expected goals1.40

Middlesbrough expected goals1.57

Wrexham keep a clean sheet21%

Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet25%

Wrexham win without conceding15%

Middlesbrough win without conceding19%

Wrexham score 2 or more41%

Middlesbrough score 2 or more46%

Recent form

Wrexham

L @ Blackburn0–2 · 24 Oct

W v Preston4–1 · 17 Oct

L v West Brom1–2 · 13 Oct

D @ Derby1–1 · 10 Oct

W v Southampton2–1 · 19 Sep

Middlesbrough

W @ Bolton5–1 · 23 Oct

D v Cardiff2–2 · 17 Oct

W @ Stoke3–2 · 13 Oct

W v Wolves1–0 · 10 Oct

D @ Birmingham2–2 · 19 Sep

Head to head

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Wrexham won 0, Middlesbrough won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

Wrexham 2–2 Middlesbrough2 May 2026

Middlesbrough 1–1 Wrexham25 Oct 2025

Season averages per game

WRMI

1.25

Goals

2.25

1.50

Conceded

1.42

1.16

2.17

1.21

xG against

1.01

12.5

Shots

20.1

3.5

On target

6.7

5.5

Corners

6.3

1.33

Yellow cards

1.00

17%

Clean sheets

17%

67%

Both score

83%

50%

3+ goals

75%

Questions and answers

Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

GossipBall gives Wrexham a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 41%. GossipBall makes Middlesbrough slight favourites to beat Wrexham away from home.

What is the most likely score in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 0–1 (8%).

Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

GossipBall gives a 60% chance that both Wrexham and Middlesbrough score.

Will there be three or more goals in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

There is a 57% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.4 for Wrexham, 1.6 for Middlesbrough).

When is Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

Kick-off is Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Middlesbrough?

In 2 league meetings since 2025, Wrexham won 0, Middlesbrough won 0 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, was a 2–2 draw.