EredivisieMatchday 11Saturday 31 October 2026 · 20:00

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

Ajax

49%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.6% chance

25%

draw

AZ Alkmaar

25%

away win

Win probability: home 49%, draw 25%, away 25%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Ajax favourites to beat AZ Alkmaar at home in the Eredivisie on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Ajax a 49% chance of winning, puts the draw at 25% and gives AZ Alkmaar 25%.

GossipBall expects 1.8 goals from Ajax and 1.3 from AZ Alkmaar, so goals look likely: there is a 61% chance of three or more goals and a 62% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (12%). Ajax keep a clean sheet in 28% of outcomes, AZ Alkmaar in 16%.

Ajax are 2nd in the table with 21 points from 10 games; AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 20. In their last five league games Ajax took 11 points (WDDWW) and AZ Alkmaar took 5 (DWLDL). This season Ajax average 2.42 expected goals (xG) for and 1.34 against per game; AZ Alkmaar average 2.17 for and 1.22 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Ajax won 0, AZ Alkmaar won 6 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Ajax goalsColumns: AZ Alkmaar goals

1–111.6%

2–19.6%

2–07.5%

1–06.8%

1–26.7%

2–26.1%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

83%

3 or more goals

61%

4 or more goals

38%

5 or more goals

21%

Both teams score

62%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.1 goals in total: 1.85 for Ajax and 1.28 for AZ Alkmaar.

Winning margin

Explained

Ajax by 3

Ajax by 2

15%

Ajax by 1

21%

Draw

25%

AZ Alkmaar by 3

AZ Alkmaar by 2

AZ Alkmaar by 1

14%

Each team's goals

Explained

Ajax expected goals1.85

AZ Alkmaar expected goals1.28

Ajax keep a clean sheet28%

AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet16%

Ajax win without conceding22%

AZ Alkmaar win without conceding10%

Ajax score 2 or more55%

AZ Alkmaar score 2 or more37%

Recent form

Ajax

W @ Sparta Rotterdam2–1 · 25 Oct

W @ Groningen5–2 · 18 Oct

D v NEC Nijmegen1–1 · 10 Oct

D v Excelsior2–2 · 19 Sep

W v Willem II5–1 · 15 Sep

AZ Alkmaar

L v Twente0–2 · 25 Oct

D @ Cambuur2–2 · 18 Oct

L @ Feyenoord0–2 · 10 Oct

W v Telstar1–0 · 20 Sep

D v Willem II1–1 · 11 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Ajax won 0, AZ Alkmaar won 6 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax8 Feb 2026

Ajax 0–2 AZ Alkmaar18 Oct 2025

Ajax 2–2 AZ Alkmaar16 Mar 2025

AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Ajax8 Dec 2024

AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Ajax25 Feb 2024

Ajax 1–2 AZ Alkmaar8 Oct 2023

Season averages per game

AJAA

2.90

Goals

2.00

1.30

Conceded

1.20

2.42

2.17

1.34

xG against

1.22

22.2

Shots

16.8

7.6

On target

6.4

6.7

Corners

7.5

1.90

Yellow cards

1.40

20%

Clean sheets

30%

80%

Both score

50%

80%

3+ goals

40%

Questions and answers

Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

GossipBall gives Ajax a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AZ Alkmaar 25%. GossipBall makes Ajax favourites to beat AZ Alkmaar at home.

What is the most likely score in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 12% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (7%), 1–0 (7%).

Will both teams score in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

GossipBall gives a 62% chance that both Ajax and AZ Alkmaar score.

Will there be three or more goals in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

There is a 61% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total (1.8 for Ajax, 1.3 for AZ Alkmaar).

When is Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Ajax won 0, AZ Alkmaar won 6 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.