EredivisieMatchday 13Sunday 22 November 2026 ·

Twente vs Willem II prediction

81%
home win
predicted score
3–1
7.7% chance
13%
draw
6%
away win
Win probability: home 81%, draw 13%, away 6%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Twente clear favourites to beat Willem II at home in the Eredivisie on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 11:15 UTC. It gives Twente a 81% chance of winning, puts the draw at 13% and gives Willem II 6%.

GossipBall expects 2.9 goals from Twente and 0.7 from Willem II, so goals look likely: there is a 69% chance of three or more goals and a 48% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 3–1. Twente keep a clean sheet in 50% of outcomes, Willem II in 6%.

Twente are 4th in the table with 23 points from 11 games; Willem II are 18th with 2. In their last five league games Twente took 10 points (WDLWW) and Willem II took 0 (LLLLL). This season Twente average 2.41 expected goals (xG) for and 0.81 against per game; Willem II average 1.19 for and 2.28 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Twente won 3, Willem II won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 12 Jan 2025, finished Twente 6–2 Willem II, a win for Twente.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
1
<1
<1
1
8
6
2
<1
2
12
8
3
<1
<1
3
11
8
3
<1
<1
4
8
6
2
<1
5
5
3
1
<1
Rows: Twente goalsColumns: Willem II goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 2–0 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

2–011.8%
3–011.2%
2–18.1%
4–08.0%
3–17.7%
1–07.5%
1 or more goals
96%
2 or more goals
88%
3 or more goals
69%
4 or more goals
47%
5 or more goals
28%
Both teams score
48%

GossipBall expects 3.6 goals in total: 2.86 for Twente and 0.69 for Willem II.

Winning margin

Explained
Twente by 3
18%
Twente by 2
22%
Twente by 1
19%
Draw
13%
Willem II by 3
0%
Willem II by 2
1%
Willem II by 1
4%

Each team's goals

Explained
Twente expected goals2.86
Willem II expected goals0.69
Twente keep a clean sheet50%
Willem II keep a clean sheet6%
Twente win without conceding47%
Willem II win without conceding2%
Twente score 2 or more78%
Willem II score 2 or more15%

Recent form

Twente
W @ Excelsior9–0 · 1 Nov
W @ AZ Alkmaar2–0 · 25 Oct
L v Utrecht1–2 · 18 Oct
D @ Fortuna Sittard1–1 · 10 Oct
W v PSV Eindhoven3–2 · 20 Sep
Willem II
L @ PSV Eindhoven0–7 · 31 Oct
L v Cambuur1–6 · 24 Oct
L @ Sparta Rotterdam2–3 · 17 Oct
L @ Utrecht1–3 · 11 Oct
L v Fortuna Sittard0–1 · 19 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Twente won 3, Willem II won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 12 Jan 2025, finished Twente 6–2 Willem II, a win for Twente.

Twente 6–2 Willem II12 Jan 2025
Willem II 0–1 Twente2 Nov 2024
Willem II 0–1 Twente22 Jan 2022
Twente 1–1 Willem II17 Oct 2021

Season averages per game

TWEWII
2.55
Goals
0.91
0.91
Conceded
3.55
2.41
xG
1.19
0.81
xG against
2.28
21.0
Shots
10.9
7.6
On target
2.5
7.1
Corners
4.5
1.00
Yellow cards
1.45
36%
Clean sheets
0%
55%
Both score
73%
55%
3+ goals
82%

Questions and answers

Who will win Twente vs Willem II?

GossipBall gives Twente a 81% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Willem II 6%. GossipBall makes Twente clear favourites to beat Willem II at home.

What is the predicted score for Twente vs Willem II?

GossipBall's predicted score is 3–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.9 for Twente, 0.7 for Willem II). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 2–0 (12%), 3–0 (11%), 2–1 (8%).

Will both teams score in Twente vs Willem II?

GossipBall gives a 48% chance that both Twente and Willem II score.

Will there be three or more goals in Twente vs Willem II?

There is a 69% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.6 goals in total (2.9 for Twente, 0.7 for Willem II).

When is Twente vs Willem II?

Kick-off is Sunday 22 November 2026 at 11:15 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Willem II?

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Twente won 3, Willem II won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 12 Jan 2025, finished Twente 6–2 Willem II, a win for Twente.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC