Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid result and stats
Win probability: home 36%, draw 24%, away 40%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersAtlético Madrid beat Real Madrid 2–1 at home in the La Liga on Sunday 20 September 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Atlético Madrid 36%, the draw 24% and Real Madrid 40%, so a home win had a 36% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Atlético Madrid 2.35, Real Madrid 0.30, so Atlético Madrid created the better chances. Atlético Madrid had 18 shots (9 on target) to Real Madrid's 8 (3 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
AMRM
2.35Expected goals0.30
18Shots8
9On target3
3Corners1
19Fouls6
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
0Half-time goals0
Recent form
Atlético Madrid
W v Osasuna4–0 · 16 Sep
W @ Real Sociedad3–0 · 13 Sep
L @ Athletic Club0–3 · 5 Sep
W @ Sevilla3–1 · 29 Aug
D v Villarreal2–2 · 23 Aug
Real Madrid
W @ Elche3–2 · 15 Sep
W v Rayo Vallecano4–1 · 12 Sep
L @ Real Betis0–1 · 4 Sep
W v Malaga4–0 · 30 Aug
W v Real Sociedad4–1 · 26 Aug
Head to head
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Atlético Madrid won 3, Real Madrid won 3 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 22 Mar 2026, finished Real Madrid 3–2 Atlético Madrid, a win for Real Madrid.
Real Madrid 3–2 Atlético Madrid22 Mar 2026
Atlético Madrid 5–2 Real Madrid27 Sep 2025
Real Madrid 1–1 Atlético Madrid8 Feb 2025
Atlético Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid29 Sep 2024
Real Madrid 1–1 Atlético Madrid4 Feb 2024
Atlético Madrid 3–1 Real Madrid24 Sep 2023
Season averages per game
AMRM
2.00Goals2.50
0.80Conceded1.00
1.70xG2.39
1.06xG against1.01
18.0Shots16.8
6.2On target7.0
6.0Corners6.4
2.40Yellow cards2.30
50%Clean sheets20%
40%Both score70%
70%3+ goals80%