La LigaMatchday 11Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:15

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo prediction

Rayo Vallecano

40%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.1% chance

28%

draw

Celta Vigo

32%

away win

Win probability: home 40%, draw 28%, away 32%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Rayo Vallecano slight favourites to beat Celta Vigo at home in the La Liga on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC. It gives Rayo Vallecano a 40% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Celta Vigo 32%.

GossipBall expects 1.2 goals from Rayo Vallecano and 1.1 from Celta Vigo, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 40% chance of three or more goals and a 46% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 34% of outcomes, Celta Vigo in 30%.

Rayo Vallecano are 16th in the table with 9 points from 9 games; Celta Vigo are 9th with 12. In their last five league games Rayo Vallecano took 5 points (LWDDL) and Celta Vigo took 9 (DWDWD). This season Rayo Vallecano average 1.40 expected goals (xG) for and 1.72 against per game; Celta Vigo average 0.89 for and 1.17 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Rayo Vallecano won 2, Celta Vigo won 3 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Jan 2026, finished Celta Vigo 3–0 Rayo Vallecano, a win for Celta Vigo.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Rayo Vallecano goalsColumns: Celta Vigo goals

1–113.1%

1–012.5%

0–111.0%

0–010.0%

2–18.1%

2–07.5%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

90%

2 or more goals

66%

3 or more goals

40%

4 or more goals

20%

5 or more goals

Both teams score

46%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.3 goals in total: 1.22 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.07 for Celta Vigo.

Winning margin

Explained

Rayo Vallecano by 3

Rayo Vallecano by 2

11%

Rayo Vallecano by 1

23%

Draw

28%

Celta Vigo by 3

Celta Vigo by 2

Celta Vigo by 1

20%

Each team's goals

Explained

Rayo Vallecano expected goals1.22

Celta Vigo expected goals1.07

Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet34%

Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet30%

Rayo Vallecano win without conceding24%

Celta Vigo win without conceding20%

Rayo Vallecano score 2 or more34%

Celta Vigo score 2 or more29%

Recent form

Rayo Vallecano

L v Elche0–3 · 24 Oct

D @ Getafe1–1 · 19 Oct

D @ Osasuna1–1 · 19 Sep

W v Espanyol2–1 · 15 Sep

L @ Real Madrid1–4 · 12 Sep

Celta Vigo

D v Real Betis0–0 · 25 Oct

W v Alaves2–1 · 18 Oct

D @ Elche0–0 · 11 Oct

W v Santander5–0 · 19 Sep

D v Malaga1–1 · 13 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Rayo Vallecano won 2, Celta Vigo won 3 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Jan 2026, finished Celta Vigo 3–0 Rayo Vallecano, a win for Celta Vigo.

Celta Vigo 3–0 Rayo Vallecano18 Jan 2026

Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Celta Vigo21 Sep 2025

Celta Vigo 1–2 Rayo Vallecano18 May 2025

Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Celta Vigo10 Jan 2025

Celta Vigo 0–0 Rayo Vallecano31 Mar 2024

Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Celta Vigo11 Dec 2023

Season averages per game

RVCV

1.33

Goals

1.00

2.22

Conceded

0.70

1.40

0.89

1.72

xG against

1.17

14.8

Shots

9.7

4.7

On target

3.3

5.3

Corners

2.8

2.56

Yellow cards

1.70

Clean sheets

50%

89%

Both score

40%

67%

3+ goals

30%

Questions and answers

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

GossipBall gives Rayo Vallecano a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Celta Vigo 32%. GossipBall makes Rayo Vallecano slight favourites to beat Celta Vigo at home.

What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 0–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

GossipBall gives a 46% chance that both Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo score.

Will there be three or more goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

There is a 40% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.3 goals in total (1.2 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.1 for Celta Vigo).

When is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Rayo Vallecano won 2, Celta Vigo won 3 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Jan 2026, finished Celta Vigo 3–0 Rayo Vallecano, a win for Celta Vigo.