Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano result and stats
Win probability: home 73%, draw 17%, away 10%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersReal Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1 at home in the La Liga on Saturday 12 September 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Real Madrid 73%, the draw 17% and Rayo Vallecano 10%, so a home win had a 73% chance. GossipBall's favourite result came in.
On expected goals it finished Real Madrid 2.61, Rayo Vallecano 1.22, so Real Madrid created the better chances. Real Madrid had 24 shots (11 on target) to Rayo Vallecano's 18 (7 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
RMRV
2.61Expected goals1.22
24Shots18
11On target7
11Corners5
9Fouls13
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
3Half-time goals0
Recent form
Real Madrid
L @ Real Betis0–1 · 4 Sep
W v Malaga4–0 · 30 Aug
W v Real Sociedad4–1 · 26 Aug
W @ Espanyol2–1 · 22 Aug
W v Athletic Club4–2 · 23 May
Rayo Vallecano
W v Santander3–2 · 5 Sep
L @ Barcelona2–5 · 31 Aug
D v Alaves1–1 · 20 Aug
L @ Sevilla1–2 · 15 Aug
W @ Alaves2–1 · 23 May
Head to head
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Real Madrid won 5, Rayo Vallecano won 1 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 1 Feb 2026, finished Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano, a win for Real Madrid.
Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano1 Feb 2026
Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Madrid9 Nov 2025
Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano9 Mar 2025
Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Madrid14 Dec 2024
Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real Madrid18 Feb 2024
Real Madrid 0–0 Rayo Vallecano5 Nov 2023
Season averages per game
RMRV
2.50Goals1.33
1.00Conceded2.22
2.39xG1.40
1.01xG against1.72
16.8Shots14.8
7.0On target4.7
6.4Corners5.3
2.30Yellow cards2.56
20%Clean sheets0%
70%Both score89%
80%3+ goals67%