Ligue 1Matchday 9Sunday 1 November 2026 · 19:45

Marseille vs Toulouse prediction

Marseille

51%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

10.6% chance

23%

draw

Toulouse

25%

away win

Win probability: home 51%, draw 23%, away 25%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Marseille favourites to beat Toulouse at home in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Marseille a 51% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Toulouse 25%.

GossipBall expects 1.9 goals from Marseille and 1.3 from Toulouse, so goals look likely: there is a 62% chance of three or more goals and a 62% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). Marseille keep a clean sheet in 28% of outcomes, Toulouse in 15%.

Marseille are 8th in the table with 12 points from 8 games; Toulouse are 11th with 10. In their last five league games Marseille took 9 points (LLWWW) and Toulouse took 9 (DWDWD). This season Marseille average 1.67 expected goals (xG) for and 2.29 against per game; Toulouse average 1.87 for and 1.29 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Marseille won 5, Toulouse won 0 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 7 Mar 2026, finished Toulouse 0–1 Marseille, a win for Marseille.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Marseille goalsColumns: Toulouse goals

1–110.6%

2–19.6%

2–07.4%

1–07.4%

1–26.5%

2–26.2%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

95%

2 or more goals

83%

3 or more goals

62%

4 or more goals

39%

5 or more goals

22%

Both teams score

62%

GOSSIPBALL expects 3.2 goals in total: 1.90 for Marseille and 1.29 for Toulouse.

Winning margin

Explained

Marseille by 3

Marseille by 2

16%

Marseille by 1

22%

Draw

23%

Toulouse by 3

Toulouse by 2

Toulouse by 1

15%

Each team's goals

Explained

Marseille expected goals1.90

Toulouse expected goals1.29

Marseille keep a clean sheet28%

Toulouse keep a clean sheet15%

Marseille win without conceding23%

Toulouse win without conceding10%

Marseille score 2 or more57%

Toulouse score 2 or more37%

Recent form

Marseille

W v Le Havre4–3 · 25 Oct

W @ Angers5–2 · 18 Oct

W @ Troyes2–0 · 11 Oct

L v Paris Saint-Germain1–2 · 20 Sep

L @ Rennes0–1 · 11 Sep

Toulouse

D v Troyes0–0 · 25 Oct

W @ Le Mans3–0 · 16 Oct

D @ Monaco2–2 · 10 Oct

W v Le Havre3–2 · 19 Sep

D @ Lorient2–2 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Marseille won 5, Toulouse won 0 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 7 Mar 2026, finished Toulouse 0–1 Marseille, a win for Marseille.

Toulouse 0–1 Marseille7 Mar 2026

Marseille 2–2 Toulouse29 Nov 2025

Marseille 3–2 Toulouse6 Apr 2025

Toulouse 1–3 Marseille31 Aug 2024

Toulouse 2–2 Marseille21 Apr 2024

Marseille 0–0 Toulouse17 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

MATO

2.25

Goals

1.50

1.62

Conceded

1.38

1.67

1.87

2.29

xG against

1.29

12.9

Shots

12.8

4.9

On target

4.4

Corners

4.1

1.25

Yellow cards

2.12

25%

Clean sheets

25%

50%

Both score

50%

62%

3+ goals

62%

Questions and answers

Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?

GossipBall gives Marseille a 51% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toulouse 25%. GossipBall makes Marseille favourites to beat Toulouse at home.

What is the most likely score in Marseille vs Toulouse?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (7%), 1–0 (7%).

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Toulouse?

GossipBall gives a 62% chance that both Marseille and Toulouse score.

Will there be three or more goals in Marseille vs Toulouse?

There is a 62% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (1.9 for Marseille, 1.3 for Toulouse).

When is Marseille vs Toulouse?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Toulouse?

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Marseille won 5, Toulouse won 0 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 7 Mar 2026, finished Toulouse 0–1 Marseille, a win for Marseille.