Ligue 1Matchday 11Saturday 21 November 2026 ·

Monaco vs Auxerre prediction

59%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.9% chance
22%
draw
19%
away win
Win probability: home 59%, draw 22%, away 19%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Monaco favourites to beat Auxerre at home in Ligue 1 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Monaco a 59% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Auxerre 19%.

GossipBall expects 2.0 goals from Monaco and 1.1 from Auxerre, so goals look likely: there is a 59% chance of three or more goals and a 57% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Monaco keep a clean sheet in 35% of outcomes, Auxerre in 13%.

Monaco are 7th in the table with 15 points from 9 games; Auxerre are 14th with 10. In their last five league games Monaco took 5 points (WDLDL) and Auxerre took 7 (WLWDL). This season Monaco average 1.18 expected goals (xG) for and 1.36 against per game; Auxerre average 1.42 for and 2.06 against.

In 6 league meetings since 2022, Monaco won 5, Auxerre won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
4
3
<1
<1
1
9
10
5
2
<1
<1
2
9
10
5
2
<1
<1
3
6
7
4
1
<1
4
3
3
2
<1
<1
5
1
1
<1
<1
Rows: Monaco goalsColumns: Auxerre goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (10%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–110.3%
2–19.9%
2–09.4%
1–08.8%
3–16.7%
3–06.3%
1 or more goals
95%
2 or more goals
82%
3 or more goals
59%
4 or more goals
37%
5 or more goals
20%
Both teams score
57%

GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total: 2.02 for Monaco and 1.06 for Auxerre.

Winning margin

Explained
Monaco by 3
11%
Monaco by 2
18%
Monaco by 1
23%
Draw
22%
Auxerre by 3
2%
Auxerre by 2
5%
Auxerre by 1
12%

Each team's goals

Explained
Monaco expected goals2.02
Auxerre expected goals1.06
Monaco keep a clean sheet35%
Auxerre keep a clean sheet13%
Monaco win without conceding30%
Auxerre win without conceding8%
Monaco score 2 or more60%
Auxerre score 2 or more28%

Recent form

Monaco
L @ Paris FC1–3 · 1 Nov
D v Lille1–1 · 25 Oct
L @ Lorient0–1 · 18 Oct
D v Toulouse2–2 · 10 Oct
W v Lens2–1 · 18 Sep
Auxerre
L @ Strasbourg1–5 · 1 Nov
D v Le Mans1–1 · 25 Oct
W @ Le Havre3–1 · 18 Oct
L @ Rennes1–4 · 11 Oct
W v Brest2–1 · 20 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

In 6 league meetings since 2022, Monaco won 5, Auxerre won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

Monaco 2–2 Auxerre19 Apr 2026
Auxerre 1–2 Monaco13 Sep 2025
Monaco 4–2 Auxerre1 Feb 2025
Auxerre 0–3 Monaco14 Sep 2024
Monaco 3–2 Auxerre1 Feb 2023
Auxerre 2–3 Monaco28 Dec 2022

Season averages per game

ASMAJA
1.33
Goals
1.44
1.11
Conceded
2.56
1.18
xG
1.42
1.36
xG against
2.06
12.4
Shots
11.6
4.3
On target
4.8
3.8
Corners
5.1
2.22
Yellow cards
1.67
22%
Clean sheets
11%
67%
Both score
89%
44%
3+ goals
78%

Questions and answers

Who will win Monaco vs Auxerre?

GossipBall gives Monaco a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Auxerre 19%. GossipBall makes Monaco favourites to beat Auxerre at home.

What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Auxerre?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.0 for Monaco, 1.1 for Auxerre). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%).

Will both teams score in Monaco vs Auxerre?

GossipBall gives a 57% chance that both Monaco and Auxerre score.

Will there be three or more goals in Monaco vs Auxerre?

There is a 59% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total (2.0 for Monaco, 1.1 for Auxerre).

When is Monaco vs Auxerre?

Kick-off is Saturday 21 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Auxerre?

In 6 league meetings since 2022, Monaco won 5, Auxerre won 0 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC