Ligue 1Matchday 13Sunday 6 December 2026 ·

Rennes vs Brest prediction

50%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.1% chance
22%
draw
28%
away win
Win probability: home 50%, draw 22%, away 28%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Rennes favourites to beat Brest at home in Ligue 1 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 16:15 UTC. It gives Rennes a 50% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Brest 28%.

GossipBall expects 2.0 goals from Rennes and 1.5 from Brest, so goals look likely: there is a 68% chance of three or more goals and a 67% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Rennes keep a clean sheet in 23% of outcomes, Brest in 13%.

Rennes are 8th in the table with 16 points from 10 games; Brest are 9th with 15. In their last five league games Rennes took 6 points (WLWLL) and Brest took 10 (WDLWW). This season Rennes average 2.03 expected goals (xG) for and 2.13 against per game; Brest average 1.96 for and 1.23 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Rennes won 5, Brest won 2 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Brest 3–4 Rennes, a win for Rennes.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
4
3
2
<1
<1
1
6
9
7
3
1
<1
2
6
9
7
3
1
<1
3
4
6
5
2
<1
<1
4
2
3
2
1
<1
<1
5
<1
1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Rennes goalsColumns: Brest goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (9%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–19.4%
2–19.1%
2–26.7%
1–26.7%
2–06.2%
3–16.2%
1 or more goals
97%
2 or more goals
87%
3 or more goals
68%
4 or more goals
46%
5 or more goals
27%
Both teams score
67%

GossipBall expects 3.5 goals in total: 2.02 for Rennes and 1.47 for Brest.

Winning margin

Explained
Rennes by 3
8%
Rennes by 2
15%
Rennes by 1
21%
Draw
22%
Brest by 3
3%
Brest by 2
8%
Brest by 1
15%

Each team's goals

Explained
Rennes expected goals2.02
Brest expected goals1.47
Rennes keep a clean sheet23%
Brest keep a clean sheet13%
Rennes win without conceding20%
Brest win without conceding10%
Rennes score 2 or more60%
Brest score 2 or more43%

Recent form

Rennes
L v Lille1–2 · 8 Nov
L @ Nice2–5 · 30 Oct
W v Strasbourg3–0 · 25 Oct
L @ Paris FC3–4 · 18 Oct
W v Auxerre4–1 · 11 Oct
Brest
W v Lyon2–0 · 8 Nov
W @ Lorient2–0 · 2 Nov
L v Nice1–2 · 23 Oct
D @ Lille1–1 · 17 Oct
W v Angers5–1 · 10 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Rennes won 5, Brest won 2 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Brest 3–4 Rennes, a win for Rennes.

Brest 3–4 Rennes4 Apr 2026
Rennes 3–1 Brest13 Dec 2025
Rennes 1–2 Brest18 Jan 2025
Brest 1–1 Rennes19 Oct 2024
Rennes 4–5 Brest28 Apr 2024
Brest 0–0 Rennes2 Sep 2023

Season averages per game

RENBRE
2.10
Goals
1.80
2.10
Conceded
1.20
2.03
xG
1.96
2.13
xG against
1.23
16.2
Shots
16.0
6.0
On target
5.7
5.7
Corners
4.0
2.10
Yellow cards
1.40
20%
Clean sheets
20%
70%
Both score
70%
90%
3+ goals
60%

Questions and answers

Who will win Rennes vs Brest?

GossipBall gives Rennes a 50% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Brest 28%. GossipBall makes Rennes favourites to beat Brest at home.

What is the predicted score for Rennes vs Brest?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.0 for Rennes, 1.5 for Brest). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 2–2 (7%).

Will both teams score in Rennes vs Brest?

GossipBall gives a 67% chance that both Rennes and Brest score.

Will there be three or more goals in Rennes vs Brest?

There is a 68% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.5 goals in total (2.0 for Rennes, 1.5 for Brest).

When is Rennes vs Brest?

Kick-off is Sunday 6 December 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Brest?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Rennes won 5, Brest won 2 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Brest 3–4 Rennes, a win for Rennes.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC