Ligue 1Matchday 13Sunday 6 December 2026 ·

Troyes vs Lyon prediction

23%
home win
predicted score
1–2
9.6% chance
26%
draw
52%
away win
Win probability: home 23%, draw 26%, away 52%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Lyon favourites to beat Troyes away from home in Ligue 1 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC. It gives Troyes a 23% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Lyon 52%.

GossipBall expects 1.0 goals from Troyes and 1.6 from Lyon, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 49% chance of three or more goals and a 52% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Troyes keep a clean sheet in 19% of outcomes, Lyon in 37%.

Troyes are 17th in the table with 8 points from 10 games; Lyon are 5th with 17. In their last five league games Troyes took 4 points (LLDWL) and Lyon took 6 (LWLWL). This season Troyes average 1.17 expected goals (xG) for and 1.55 against per game; Lyon average 1.50 for and 1.22 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Troyes won 0, Lyon won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Feb 2023, finished Troyes 1–3 Lyon, a win for Lyon.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
11
10
5
2
<1
1
7
12
10
5
2
<1
2
4
6
5
3
1
<1
3
1
2
2
<1
<1
<1
4
<1
<1
<1
<1
5
<1
Rows: Troyes goalsColumns: Lyon goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–112.2%
0–111.1%
1–29.6%
0–29.5%
0–07.6%
1–06.6%
1 or more goals
92%
2 or more goals
75%
3 or more goals
49%
4 or more goals
27%
5 or more goals
13%
Both teams score
52%

GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.01 for Troyes and 1.64 for Lyon.

Winning margin

Explained
Troyes by 3
2%
Troyes by 2
6%
Troyes by 1
14%
Draw
26%
Lyon by 3
8%
Lyon by 2
16%
Lyon by 1
24%

Each team's goals

Explained
Troyes expected goals1.01
Lyon expected goals1.64
Troyes keep a clean sheet19%
Lyon keep a clean sheet37%
Troyes win without conceding12%
Lyon win without conceding29%
Troyes score 2 or more27%
Lyon score 2 or more49%

Recent form

Troyes
L @ Paris Saint-Germain0–1 · 7 Nov
W v Le Mans2–0 · 31 Oct
D @ Toulouse0–0 · 25 Oct
L v Lens1–3 · 17 Oct
L v Marseille0–2 · 11 Oct
Lyon
L @ Brest0–2 · 8 Nov
W v Angers2–0 · 1 Nov
L @ Paris Saint-Germain0–2 · 26 Oct
W v Nice2–1 · 18 Oct
L @ Lens1–2 · 9 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Troyes won 0, Lyon won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Feb 2023, finished Troyes 1–3 Lyon, a win for Lyon.

Troyes 1–3 Lyon4 Feb 2023
Lyon 4–1 Troyes19 Aug 2022
Troyes 0–1 Lyon16 Jan 2022
Lyon 3–1 Troyes22 Sep 2021

Season averages per game

ETRLYO
0.70
Goals
1.50
1.70
Conceded
0.90
1.17
xG
1.50
1.55
xG against
1.22
13.1
Shots
12.9
3.3
On target
4.6
5.7
Corners
4.6
1.70
Yellow cards
1.30
30%
Clean sheets
40%
30%
Both score
40%
30%
3+ goals
40%

Questions and answers

Who will win Troyes vs Lyon?

GossipBall gives Troyes a 23% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lyon 52%. GossipBall makes Lyon favourites to beat Troyes away from home.

What is the predicted score for Troyes vs Lyon?

GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.0 for Troyes, 1.6 for Lyon). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%).

Will both teams score in Troyes vs Lyon?

GossipBall gives a 52% chance that both Troyes and Lyon score.

Will there be three or more goals in Troyes vs Lyon?

There is a 49% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.0 for Troyes, 1.6 for Lyon).

When is Troyes vs Lyon?

Kick-off is Sunday 6 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Troyes and Lyon?

In 4 league meetings since 2021, Troyes won 0, Lyon won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 4 Feb 2023, finished Troyes 1–3 Lyon, a win for Lyon.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC