Premier LeagueMatchday 11Saturday 21 November 2026 ·

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest prediction

45%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.2% chance
27%
draw
Win probability: home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Bournemouth slight favourites to beat Nottingham Forest at home in the Premier League on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Bournemouth a 45% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Nottingham Forest 28%.

GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Bournemouth and 1.2 from Nottingham Forest, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 50% chance of three or more goals and a 55% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 31% of outcomes, Nottingham Forest in 22%.

Bournemouth are 8th in the table with 12 points from 9 games; Nottingham Forest are 19th with 6. In their last five league games Bournemouth took 9 points (LLWWW) and Nottingham Forest took 1 (LLLDL). This season Bournemouth average 1.75 expected goals (xG) for and 1.12 against per game; Nottingham Forest average 1.63 for and 1.03 against.

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Bournemouth won 4, Nottingham Forest won 0 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
7
5
2
<1
<1
1
9
13
7
3
<1
<1
2
8
9
5
2
<1
<1
3
4
5
3
1
<1
4
2
2
1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Bournemouth goalsColumns: Nottingham Forest goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–113.1%
1–09.3%
2–19.2%
2–07.9%
0–07.8%
1–27.0%
1 or more goals
92%
2 or more goals
76%
3 or more goals
50%
4 or more goals
28%
5 or more goals
14%
Both teams score
55%

GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total: 1.53 for Bournemouth and 1.16 for Nottingham Forest.

Winning margin

Explained
Bournemouth by 3
6%
Bournemouth by 2
14%
Bournemouth by 1
22%
Draw
27%
Nottingham Forest by 3
3%
Nottingham Forest by 2
8%
Nottingham Forest by 1
16%

Each team's goals

Explained
Bournemouth expected goals1.53
Nottingham Forest expected goals1.16
Bournemouth keep a clean sheet31%
Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet22%
Bournemouth win without conceding23%
Nottingham Forest win without conceding14%
Bournemouth score 2 or more45%
Nottingham Forest score 2 or more32%

Recent form

Bournemouth
W v Leeds2–0 · 31 Oct
W @ Manchester United3–0 · 25 Oct
W v Sunderland2–0 · 18 Oct
L @ Chelsea1–5 · 10 Oct
L v Liverpool0–1 · 20 Sep
Nottingham Forest
L @ Brentford0–2 · 31 Oct
D @ Ipswich1–1 · 23 Oct
L v Arsenal0–1 · 18 Oct
L @ Crystal Palace1–3 · 11 Oct
L v Coventry0–1 · 19 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Bournemouth won 4, Nottingham Forest won 0 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

Nottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth24 May 2026
Bournemouth 2–0 Nottingham Forest26 Oct 2025
Bournemouth 5–0 Nottingham Forest25 Jan 2025
Nottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth17 Aug 2024
Bournemouth 1–1 Nottingham Forest4 Feb 2024
Nottingham Forest 2–3 Bournemouth23 Dec 2023

Season averages per game

BOUNOT
1.56
Goals
0.67
1.44
Conceded
1.33
1.75
xG
1.63
1.12
xG against
1.03
14.1
Shots
16.9
5.0
On target
3.4
4.6
Corners
4.7
2.67
Yellow cards
2.22
33%
Clean sheets
11%
56%
Both score
44%
56%
3+ goals
33%

Questions and answers

Who will win Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?

GossipBall gives Bournemouth a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Nottingham Forest 28%. GossipBall makes Bournemouth slight favourites to beat Nottingham Forest at home.

What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.5 for Bournemouth, 1.2 for Nottingham Forest). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?

GossipBall gives a 55% chance that both Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest score.

Will there be three or more goals in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?

There is a 50% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (1.5 for Bournemouth, 1.2 for Nottingham Forest).

When is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?

Kick-off is Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?

In 8 league meetings since 2022, Bournemouth won 4, Nottingham Forest won 0 and 4 were drawn; the most recent, on 24 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 7 November 2026, 13:02 UTC