Premier LeagueMatchday 12Saturday 28 November 2026 ·

Leeds vs Coventry prediction

51%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.5% chance
27%
draw
22%
away win
Win probability: home 51%, draw 27%, away 22%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Leeds favourites to beat Coventry at home in the Premier League on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It gives Leeds a 51% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Coventry 22%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Leeds and 1.0 from Coventry, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 47% chance of three or more goals and a 50% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Leeds keep a clean sheet in 38% of outcomes, Coventry in 20%.

Leeds are 9th in the table with 14 points from 10 games; Coventry are 17th with 9. In their last five league games Leeds took 5 points (LDDLW) and Coventry took 6 (WLLWL). This season Leeds average 1.31 expected goals (xG) for and 1.24 against per game; Coventry average 0.95 for and 1.51 against.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9
6
4
1
<1
1
11
13
6
2
<1
2
10
10
5
1
<1
3
5
5
2
<1
<1
4
2
2
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Leeds goalsColumns: Coventry goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–112.8%
1–011.3%
2–09.9%
2–19.5%
0–08.6%
0–16.4%
1 or more goals
91%
2 or more goals
74%
3 or more goals
47%
4 or more goals
26%
5 or more goals
12%
Both teams score
50%

GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.61 for Leeds and 0.96 for Coventry.

Winning margin

Explained
Leeds by 3
8%
Leeds by 2
16%
Leeds by 1
24%
Draw
27%
Coventry by 3
2%
Coventry by 2
6%
Coventry by 1
14%

Each team's goals

Explained
Leeds expected goals1.61
Coventry expected goals0.96
Leeds keep a clean sheet38%
Coventry keep a clean sheet20%
Leeds win without conceding30%
Coventry win without conceding11%
Leeds score 2 or more48%
Coventry score 2 or more25%

Recent form

Leeds
W v Tottenham1–0 · 7 Nov
L @ Bournemouth0–2 · 31 Oct
D @ Sunderland0–0 · 25 Oct
D v Manchester United1–1 · 18 Oct
L @ Arsenal1–2 · 10 Oct
Coventry
L @ Everton1–3 · 6 Nov
W v Sunderland3–1 · 31 Oct
L v Fulham0–1 · 24 Oct
L @ Tottenham1–3 · 19 Oct
W v Newcastle United4–1 · 12 Oct

Head to head

Full record →

These teams haven't met in this league in the last five seasons.

Season averages per game

LEECOV
1.00
Goals
1.00
0.80
Conceded
1.90
1.31
xG
0.95
1.24
xG against
1.51
12.1
Shots
11.2
3.7
On target
3.3
4.3
Corners
3.6
1.80
Yellow cards
1.10
40%
Clean sheets
10%
50%
Both score
40%
20%
3+ goals
60%

Questions and answers

Who will win Leeds vs Coventry?

GossipBall gives Leeds a 51% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Coventry 22%. GossipBall makes Leeds favourites to beat Coventry at home.

What is the predicted score for Leeds vs Coventry?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.6 for Leeds, 1.0 for Coventry). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 2–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Leeds vs Coventry?

GossipBall gives a 50% chance that both Leeds and Coventry score.

Will there be three or more goals in Leeds vs Coventry?

There is a 47% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.6 for Leeds, 1.0 for Coventry).

When is Leeds vs Coventry?

Kick-off is Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC