Premier LeagueMatchday 9Sunday 1 November 2026 · 16:30

Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction

Liverpool

27%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

13.3% chance

28%

draw

Arsenal

45%

away win

Win probability: home 27%, draw 28%, away 45%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Arsenal slight favourites to beat Liverpool away from home in the Premier League on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC. It gives Liverpool a 27% chance of winning, puts the draw at 28% and gives Arsenal 45%.

GossipBall expects 1.1 goals from Liverpool and 1.5 from Arsenal, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 49% chance of three or more goals and a 53% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (13%). Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 22% of outcomes, Arsenal in 33%.

Liverpool are 4th in the table with 15 points from 8 games; Arsenal are 2nd with 21. In their last five league games Liverpool took 10 points (DWLWW) and Arsenal took 12 (WLWWW). This season Liverpool average 1.51 expected goals (xG) for and 1.20 against per game; Arsenal average 1.74 for and 0.77 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Liverpool won 3, Arsenal won 2 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Liverpool goalsColumns: Arsenal goals

1–113.3%

0–19.8%

1–29.2%

0–08.3%

0–28.2%

1–07.1%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

92%

2 or more goals

75%

3 or more goals

49%

4 or more goals

27%

5 or more goals

13%

Both teams score

53%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.12 for Liverpool and 1.50 for Arsenal.

Winning margin

Explained

Liverpool by 3

Liverpool by 2

Liverpool by 1

16%

Draw

28%

Arsenal by 3

Arsenal by 2

14%

Arsenal by 1

22%

Each team's goals

Explained

Liverpool expected goals1.12

Arsenal expected goals1.50

Liverpool keep a clean sheet22%

Arsenal keep a clean sheet33%

Liverpool win without conceding14%

Arsenal win without conceding24%

Liverpool score 2 or more31%

Arsenal score 2 or more44%

Recent form

Liverpool

W v Brighton2–0 · 25 Oct

W @ Brentford2–1 · 17 Oct

L v Manchester City0–3 · 11 Oct

W @ Bournemouth1–0 · 20 Sep

D v Fulham0–0 · 12 Sep

Arsenal

W v Everton2–0 · 24 Oct

W @ Nottingham Forest1–0 · 18 Oct

W v Leeds2–1 · 10 Oct

L @ Brighton0–3 · 19 Sep

W @ Sunderland2–0 · 12 Sep

Head to head

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Liverpool won 3, Arsenal won 2 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.

Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool8 Jan 2026

Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal31 Aug 2025

Liverpool 2–2 Arsenal11 May 2025

Arsenal 2–2 Liverpool27 Oct 2024

Arsenal 3–1 Liverpool4 Feb 2024

Liverpool 1–1 Arsenal23 Dec 2023

Season averages per game

LIAR

1.38

Goals

1.62

1.00

Conceded

0.62

1.51

1.74

1.20

xG against

0.77

15.4

Shots

13.4

4.9

On target

4.4

4.8

Corners

5.6

2.38

Yellow cards

1.25

50%

Clean sheets

62%

38%

Both score

25%

50%

3+ goals

50%

Questions and answers

Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?

GossipBall gives Liverpool a 27% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Arsenal 45%. GossipBall makes Arsenal slight favourites to beat Liverpool away from home.

What is the most likely score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 13% chance. The next most likely are 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 0–0 (8%).

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?

GossipBall gives a 53% chance that both Liverpool and Arsenal score.

Will there be three or more goals in Liverpool vs Arsenal?

There is a 49% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.1 for Liverpool, 1.5 for Arsenal).

When is Liverpool vs Arsenal?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Arsenal?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Liverpool won 3, Arsenal won 2 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 8 Jan 2026, was a 0–0 draw.