Estrela vs Arouca result and stats
Win probability: home 35%, draw 27%, away 38%
Match report
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersEstrela beat Arouca 3–1 at home in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 7 December 2025. This match was played before GossipBall launched. In a retrospective test using only results available before kick-off, GossipBall's ratings gave Estrela 35%, the draw 27% and Arouca 38%, so a home win had a 35% chance. It would have been an upset.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 30 October 2026, 05:56 UTC
Match stats
ESAR
24Shots9
9On target2
5Corners3
12Fouls14
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards2
2Half-time goals0
Recent form
Estrela
L @ Sporting CP0–4 · 30 Nov
D v Nacional1–1 · 9 Nov
W @ Casa Pia5–3 · 1 Nov
L v Rio Ave1–2 · 25 Oct
L @ Gil Vicente0–2 · 4 Oct
Arouca
L v Sp Braga0–4 · 1 Dec
L @ Estoril3–4 · 7 Nov
L v Moreirense0–2 · 2 Nov
L @ Benfica0–5 · 25 Oct
D v Famalicão1–1 · 5 Oct
Head to head
In 4 league meetings since 2023, Estrela won 1, Arouca won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 19 Apr 2025, finished Arouca 1–0 Estrela, a win for Arouca.
Arouca 1–0 Estrela19 Apr 2025
Estrela 2–1 Arouca9 Dec 2024
Arouca 0–0 Estrela5 May 2024
Estrela 1–4 Arouca28 Dec 2023