Estrela vs Nacional result and stats
Win probability: home 34%, draw 30%, away 36%
Match report
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersEstrela and Nacional drew 1–1 in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 9 November 2025. This match was played before GossipBall launched. In a retrospective test using only results available before kick-off, GossipBall's ratings gave Estrela 34%, the draw 30% and Nacional 36%, so a draw had a 30% chance. It would have been an upset.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 30 October 2026, 05:56 UTC
Match stats
ESNA
14Shots17
4On target4
2Corners6
12Fouls15
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
0Half-time goals1
Recent form
Estrela
W @ Casa Pia5–3 · 1 Nov
L v Rio Ave1–2 · 25 Oct
L @ Gil Vicente0–2 · 4 Oct
W v AVS3–0 · 27 Sep
D @ Tondela0–0 · 21 Sep
Nacional
L v Famalicão0–1 · 1 Nov
D @ Estoril1–1 · 26 Oct
W v Moreirense3–2 · 4 Oct
W @ Sp Braga1–0 · 28 Sep
L v Arouca1–2 · 20 Sep
Head to head
In 2 league meetings since 2024, Estrela won 2, Nacional won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 6 Apr 2025, finished Nacional 0–1 Estrela, a win for Estrela.
Nacional 0–1 Estrela6 Apr 2025
Estrela 2–0 Nacional10 Nov 2024