Nacional
Nacional are 15th in the Primeira Liga with 7 points from 9 games (2 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats), having scored 10 and conceded 18.
They average 1.09 expected goals for and 1.83 against per game, and GossipBall ranks them 14th of 18 teams in the league on its ratings.
Simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times, GossipBall expects Nacional to finish with about 34 points, with a 0% chance of winning the league, 0% of a top-four finish and 38% of finishing in the bottom three.
Next up: away at Arouca on Sunday 1 November 2026, where GossipBall gives Nacional a 26% chance of winning.
14 / 18GOSSIPBALL rating rank
1.09xG per game
1.83xG against per game
22%clean sheets
33.5expected final points
0%chance to win the league
Next matches
Arouca
Nacional
Win probability: home 50%, draw 24%, away 26%
Likeliest score 1–1
Nacional vs Academico Viseu prediction (Primeira Liga):
Nacional
Academico Viseu
Win probability: home 31%, draw 26%, away 44%
Likeliest score 1–1
Results this season
25 Oct
Nacional1
Sp Braga0
Upset
Win probability: home 21%, draw 23%, away 56%
0.5–1.7match xG
Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional result and stats:
11 Oct
Rio Ave3
Nacional2
Called correctly
Win probability: home 39%, draw 27%, away 34%
1.7–1.2match xG
Nacional 0–4 Famalicão result and stats:
19 Sep
Nacional0
Famalicão4
Called correctly
Win probability: home 30%, draw 29%, away 41%
1.2–1.4match xG
Nacional 1–3 Alverca result and stats:
12 Sep
Nacional1
Alverca3
Upset
Win probability: home 44%, draw 27%, away 29%
2.2–1.2match xG
Sporting CP 2–0 Nacional result and stats:
5 Sep
Sporting CP2
Nacional0
Called correctly
Win probability: home 84%, draw 11%, away 5%
3.0–0.1match xG
Nacional 2–3 Estrela result and stats:
30 Aug
Nacional2
Estrela3
Upset
Win probability: home 48%, draw 26%, away 25%
0.8–2.1match xG
Vitória SC 1–0 Nacional result and stats:
23 Aug
Vitória SC1
Nacional0
Called correctly
Win probability: home 48%, draw 26%, away 26%
3.1–0.4match xG
Nacional 2–0 Estoril result and stats:
16 Aug
Nacional2
Estoril0
Called correctly
Win probability: home 40%, draw 24%, away 36%
2.1–0.8match xG
Santa Clara 2–2 Nacional result and stats:
10 Aug
Santa Clara2
Nacional2
Upset
Win probability: home 43%, draw 30%, away 27%
1.4–1.2match xG
Season stats per game
Goals scored1.11
Goals conceded2.00
Expected goals (xG)1.09
xG against1.83
Shots10.6
Shots on target3.2
Shots on target against5.8
Conversion (goals per shot on target)34%
Corners4.3
Fouls11.9
Yellow cards1.22
Red cards0.11
Clean sheets22%
Both teams scored44%
3 or more goals56%
Failed to score33%
GOSSIPBALL rating
Attack (vs league average)-0.10
Defence (positive = concedes less)-0.06
Overall-0.17