Rio Ave vs Nacional result and stats
Win probability: home 39%, draw 27%, away 34%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersRio Ave beat Nacional 3–2 at home in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 11 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Rio Ave 39%, the draw 27% and Nacional 34%, so a home win had a 39% chance. GossipBall's favourite result came in.
On expected goals it finished Rio Ave 1.66, Nacional 1.21, so Rio Ave created the better chances. Rio Ave had 11 shots (7 on target) to Nacional's 12 (5 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
RANA
1.66Expected goals1.21
11Shots12
7On target5
8Corners8
7Fouls17
2Yellow cards0
1Red cards0
1Half-time goals1
Recent form
Rio Ave
L @ Alverca0–1 · 19 Sep
D v Estrela3–3 · 14 Sep
L @ Santa Clara0–4 · 6 Sep
L v Sporting CP0–4 · 28 Aug
W @ Estoril2–0 · 22 Aug
Nacional
L v Famalicão0–4 · 19 Sep
L v Alverca1–3 · 12 Sep
L @ Sporting CP0–2 · 5 Sep
L v Estrela2–3 · 30 Aug
L @ Vitória SC0–1 · 23 Aug
Head to head
In 4 league meetings since 2024, Rio Ave won 1, Nacional won 1 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Nacional 4–0 Rio Ave, a win for Nacional.
Nacional 4–0 Rio Ave25 Jan 2026
Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional17 Aug 2025
Nacional 3–3 Rio Ave10 May 2025
Rio Ave 2–1 Nacional29 Dec 2024
Season averages per game
RANA
0.89Goals1.11
2.33Conceded2.00
0.68xG1.09
1.80xG against1.83
7.6Shots10.6
3.0On target3.2
3.8Corners4.3
1.67Yellow cards1.22
11%Clean sheets22%
22%Both score44%
56%3+ goals56%