Nacional vs Sp Braga result and stats
Win probability: home 21%, draw 23%, away 56%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersNacional beat Sp Braga 1–0 at home in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 25 October 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Nacional 21%, the draw 23% and Sp Braga 56%, so a home win had a 21% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Nacional 0.48, Sp Braga 1.67, so Sp Braga created the better chances. Nacional had 8 shots (4 on target) to Sp Braga's 20 (2 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
NASB
0.48Expected goals1.67
8Shots20
4On target2
4Corners6
18Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals0
Recent form
Nacional
L @ Rio Ave2–3 · 11 Oct
L v Famalicão0–4 · 19 Sep
L v Alverca1–3 · 12 Sep
L @ Sporting CP0–2 · 5 Sep
L v Estrela2–3 · 30 Aug
Sp Braga
L v Gil Vicente1–2 · 19 Oct
L v Sporting CP1–3 · 9 Oct
D @ Santa Clara0–0 · 20 Sep
W v Estoril1–0 · 14 Sep
L @ Estrela1–2 · 10 Sep
Head to head
In 4 league meetings since 2024, Nacional won 1, Sp Braga won 3 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 28 Feb 2026, finished Nacional 1–2 Sp Braga, a win for Sp Braga.
Nacional 1–2 Sp Braga28 Feb 2026
Sp Braga 0–1 Nacional28 Sep 2025
Sp Braga 1–0 Nacional21 Feb 2025
Nacional 0–3 Sp Braga20 Sep 2024
Season averages per game
NASB
1.11Goals1.00
2.00Conceded1.22
1.09xG1.33
1.83xG against0.76
10.6Shots14.2
3.2On target4.2
4.3Corners4.3
1.22Yellow cards2.00
22%Clean sheets33%
44%Both score56%
56%3+ goals56%