Primeira LigaMatchday 10Sunday 1 November 2026 · 15:30

Arouca vs Nacional prediction

Arouca

50%

home win

likeliest score

1–1

11.5% chance

24%

draw

Nacional

26%

away win

Win probability: home 50%, draw 24%, away 26%

Match preview

GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Arouca favourites to beat Nacional at home in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC. It gives Arouca a 50% chance of winning, puts the draw at 24% and gives Nacional 26%.

GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from Arouca and 1.1 from Nacional, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 50% chance of three or more goals and a 53% chance that both teams score. The likeliest single score is 1–1 (11%). Arouca keep a clean sheet in 34% of outcomes, Nacional in 20%.

Arouca are 5th in the table with 17 points from 9 games; Nacional are 15th with 7. In their last five league games Arouca took 8 points (DLDWW) and Nacional took 3 (LLLLW). This season Arouca average 1.28 expected goals (xG) for and 1.28 against per game; Nacional average 1.09 for and 1.83 against.

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Arouca won 4, Nacional won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Feb 2026, finished Arouca 3–0 Nacional, a win for Arouca.

GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read

Rows: Arouca goalsColumns: Nacional goals

1–111.5%

1–011.2%

2–19.5%

2–08.7%

0–17.7%

0–06.5%

Goals

Explained

1 or more goals

94%

2 or more goals

75%

3 or more goals

50%

4 or more goals

28%

5 or more goals

14%

Both teams score

53%

GOSSIPBALL expects 2.7 goals in total: 1.61 for Arouca and 1.09 for Nacional.

Winning margin

Explained

Arouca by 3

Arouca by 2

15%

Arouca by 1

24%

Draw

24%

Nacional by 3

Nacional by 2

Nacional by 1

16%

Each team's goals

Explained

Arouca expected goals1.61

Nacional expected goals1.09

Arouca keep a clean sheet34%

Nacional keep a clean sheet20%

Arouca win without conceding27%

Nacional win without conceding14%

Arouca score 2 or more48%

Nacional score 2 or more30%

Recent form

Arouca

W @ Alverca1–0 · 24 Oct

W v Estrela1–0 · 11 Oct

D @ Sporting CP2–2 · 19 Sep

L v Santa Clara1–2 · 13 Sep

D @ Estoril0–0 · 7 Sep

Nacional

W v Sp Braga1–0 · 25 Oct

L @ Rio Ave2–3 · 11 Oct

L v Famalicão0–4 · 19 Sep

L v Alverca1–3 · 12 Sep

L @ Sporting CP0–2 · 5 Sep

Head to head

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Arouca won 4, Nacional won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Feb 2026, finished Arouca 3–0 Nacional, a win for Arouca.

Arouca 3–0 Nacional21 Feb 2026

Nacional 1–2 Arouca20 Sep 2025

Nacional 1–2 Arouca1 Feb 2025

Arouca 1–0 Nacional25 Aug 2024

Season averages per game

ARNA

1.33

Goals

1.11

0.78

Conceded

2.00

1.28

1.09

1.28

xG against

1.83

11.1

Shots

10.6

3.8

On target

3.2

3.1

Corners

4.3

2.89

Yellow cards

1.22

56%

Clean sheets

22%

33%

Both score

44%

3+ goals

56%

Questions and answers

Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?

GossipBall gives Arouca a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nacional 26%. GossipBall makes Arouca favourites to beat Nacional at home.

What is the most likely score in Arouca vs Nacional?

The likeliest single score is 1–1, with a 11% chance. The next most likely are 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%).

Will both teams score in Arouca vs Nacional?

GossipBall gives a 53% chance that both Arouca and Nacional score.

Will there be three or more goals in Arouca vs Nacional?

There is a 50% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (1.6 for Arouca, 1.1 for Nacional).

When is Arouca vs Nacional?

Kick-off is Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Nacional?

In 4 league meetings since 2024, Arouca won 4, Nacional won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Feb 2026, finished Arouca 3–0 Nacional, a win for Arouca.