Nacional vs Estrela result and stats
Win probability: home 48%, draw 26%, away 25%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersEstrela won 3–2 away at Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 30 August 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Nacional 48%, the draw 26% and Estrela 25%, so an away win had a 25% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Nacional 0.84, Estrela 2.10, so Estrela created the better chances. Nacional had 10 shots (5 on target) to Estrela's 14 (4 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
NAES
0.84Expected goals2.10
10Shots14
5On target4
4Corners3
12Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Half-time goals1
Recent form
Nacional
L @ Vitória SC0–1 · 23 Aug
W v Estoril2–0 · 16 Aug
D @ Santa Clara2–2 · 10 Aug
W v Vitória SC2–0 · 16 May
L @ Santa Clara0–2 · 11 May
Estrela
D @ Alverca2–2 · 15 Aug
D v Sporting CP2–2 · 8 Aug
D @ Sp Braga2–2 · 16 May
D v Famalicão0–0 · 11 May
L @ Moreirense2–3 · 2 May
Head to head
In 4 league meetings since 2024, Nacional won 1, Estrela won 2 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished Nacional 2–0 Estrela, a win for Nacional.
Nacional 2–0 Estrela4 Apr 2026
Estrela 1–1 Nacional9 Nov 2025
Nacional 0–1 Estrela6 Apr 2025
Estrela 2–0 Nacional10 Nov 2024
Season averages per game
NAES
1.11Goals1.56
2.00Conceded1.89
1.09xG1.31
1.83xG against1.44
10.6Shots13.4
3.2On target4.4
4.3Corners4.6
1.22Yellow cards2.22
22%Clean sheets0%
44%Both score67%
56%3+ goals67%