Nacional vs Alverca result and stats
Win probability: home 44%, draw 27%, away 29%
Match report
GOSSIPBALL's parrot has been crunching the numbersAlverca won 3–1 away at Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 12 September 2026. Before kick-off GossipBall gave Nacional 44%, the draw 27% and Alverca 29%, so an away win had a 29% chance. It was an upset by GossipBall's numbers.
On expected goals it finished Nacional 2.20, Alverca 1.16, so Nacional created the better chances. Nacional had 13 shots (3 on target) to Alverca's 10 (7 on target).
GOSSIPBALL analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 29 October 2026, 20:50 UTC
Match stats
NAAL
2.20Expected goals1.16
13Shots10
3On target7
2Corners0
7Fouls16
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Half-time goals3
Recent form
Nacional
L @ Sporting CP0–2 · 5 Sep
L v Estrela2–3 · 30 Aug
L @ Vitória SC0–1 · 23 Aug
W v Estoril2–0 · 16 Aug
D @ Santa Clara2–2 · 10 Aug
Alverca
L v Sp Braga1–2 · 5 Sep
D v Santa Clara1–1 · 29 Aug
L @ Sporting CP1–3 · 22 Aug
D v Estrela2–2 · 15 Aug
L @ Porto0–2 · 9 Aug
Head to head
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Nacional won 1, Alverca won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Nacional 1–0 Alverca, a win for Nacional.
Nacional 1–0 Alverca18 Apr 2026
Alverca 1–0 Nacional7 Dec 2025
Season averages per game
NAAL
1.11Goals1.44
2.00Conceded1.44
1.09xG1.45
1.83xG against1.62
10.6Shots11.9
3.2On target3.8
4.3Corners4.6
1.22Yellow cards2.11
22%Clean sheets11%
44%Both score67%
56%3+ goals56%