Nacional vs Arouca result and stats
Win probability: home 37%, draw 26%, away 36%
Match report
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersArouca won 2–1 away at Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 20 September 2025. This match was played before GossipBall launched. In a retrospective test using only results available before kick-off, GossipBall's ratings gave Nacional 37%, the draw 26% and Arouca 36%, so an away win had a 36% chance. It would have been an upset.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 30 October 2026, 05:56 UTC
Match stats
NAAR
15Shots10
6On target3
3Corners5
10Fouls18
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards1
0Half-time goals0
Recent form
Nacional
L @ Porto0–1 · 13 Sep
W @ Casa Pia2–0 · 30 Aug
L v Sporting CP1–4 · 23 Aug
D @ Rio Ave1–1 · 17 Aug
L v Gil Vicente0–2 · 9 Aug
Arouca
L v Casa Pia0–2 · 14 Sep
D @ Vitória SC1–1 · 30 Aug
D v Rio Ave3–3 · 23 Aug
L @ Sporting CP0–6 · 17 Aug
W v AVS3–1 · 9 Aug
Head to head
In 2 league meetings since 2024, Nacional won 0, Arouca won 2 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 1 Feb 2025, finished Nacional 1–2 Arouca, a win for Arouca.
Nacional 1–2 Arouca1 Feb 2025
Arouca 1–0 Nacional25 Aug 2024